1. Executive Summary
Gold was the standout performer in the 2025-02-18 session, rallying 1.66% to settle at $2,931.60/oz, according to the latest price history. The move places the yellow metal just 0.47% below its 20-day high of $2,945.40 and at the 93.7% channel position within its recent range, underscoring the strength of the prevailing uptrend. Silver followed with a 1.57% gain to $33.317/oz, leaving the gold-silver ratio at 87.99.
Natural gas delivered the single largest percentage move across the complex, surging 7.57% to $4.007/MMBtu. The contract has now gained 16.35% over five sessions and sits at the 95.9% channel position, with the 20-day range spanning $2.99 to $4.05. Crude oil also recovered, adding 1.57% to $71.85/bbl after trading as low as $70.12, although the 20-day change remains -7.74%. Copper was the notable laggard, declining 1.54% to $4.585/lb and posting a five-day loss of 2.46%.
The macro driver remains the restrictive policy stance. The effective fed funds rate stands at 4.33%, the 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.10%, and the 10-year nominal yield at 4.55%, per the latest macro data. The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread of +26bp continues to signal a soft-landing rather than recessionary baseline. The high-yield credit spread of 262bp remains tight, and the Fed's overnight reverse repo balance of $77.82bn indicates ample system liquidity.
CFTC positioning data as of 2025-02-18 reveals a nuanced picture. Managed-money net length in gold fell 9,474 contracts to 185,329, and crude oil net length dropped 24,412 contracts to 105,892, suggesting profit-taking into strength. By contrast, natural gas net length rose 29,981 contracts to 104,031 and copper added 5,613 contracts to 30,046.
The primary risk factor for today is the divergence between record-high gold prices and a firm US dollar at 107.05 on the DXY, with VIX at 15.35 offering limited hedging cushion. Should real yields extend higher, the crowded long positioning in precious metals could be vulnerable to a sharp unwind.
2. Overnight Market Recap
Gold (GC=F). Gold closed at $2,931.60/oz on 2025-02-18, up 1.66% on the day. The session opened at $2,879.20, printed a low of $2,873.80, and reached a high of $2,936.40 before settling near the top of the range. The advance followed a 1.45% decline on 2025-02-14, when the contract closed at $2,883.60, indicating a sharp reversal of the prior session's losses. The 20-day high stands at $2,945.40 and the 20-day low at $2,724.80, placing the close at the 93.7% channel position. The 20-day change is +6.83%, and the five-day change is +0.59%. ATR has expanded to $43.95, the highest in the provided series, reflecting elevated realized volatility.
Silver (SI=F). Silver settled at $33.317/oz, up 1.57%. The contract opened at $32.76, traded between $32.76 and $33.36, and closed near the session high. The 20-day high is $34.08 and the 20-day low $30.254, with the close at the 80.1% channel position. The 20-day change is +7.64% and the five-day change +2.86%. ATR stands at $0.6775. The gold-silver ratio of 87.99 remains elevated relative to historical norms, though silver's outperformance on the day marginally compressed the ratio.
Crude Oil (CL=F). WTI crude closed at $71.85/bbl, up 1.57%. The session opened at $70.70, touched a low of $70.12 — matching the 20-day low — and reached $72.07 before settling. Despite the daily gain, the 20-day change is -7.74% and the five-day change -0.65%. The 20-day high is $78.47, placing the close at the 20.7% channel position, indicating the contract remains in the lower quartile of its recent range. ATR is $1.8357. Brent (BZ=F) closed at $75.84/bbl, up 1.47%, with the WTI-Brent spread implied at approximately $3.99.
Natural Gas (NG=F). Natural gas was the strongest performer, closing at $4.007/MMBtu, up 7.57%. The contract opened at $3.614, traded as low as $3.554, and surged to a high of $4.017. The 20-day high is $4.05 and the 20-day low $2.99, placing the close at the 95.9% channel position. The five-day change is +16.35% and the 20-day change +1.49%. ATR is $0.2306. The move extends a rally that has seen the contract rise from $3.725 on 2025-02-14.
Copper (HG=F). Copper closed at $4.585/lb, down 1.54%. The session opened at $4.59, traded between $4.55 and $4.594, and settled near the low. The 20-day high is $4.77 and the 20-day low $4.202, with the close at the 67.4% channel position. The five-day change is -2.46%, while the 20-day change remains +5.71%. ATR is $0.0861. The decline marks a second consecutive down session following the 2.36% drop on 2025-02-14.
Soybeans (ZS=F). Soybeans closed at $1,038.50/bu, up 0.24%. The contract opened at $1,033, traded between $1,026 and $1,041.75, and settled modestly higher. The 20-day high is $1,079.75 and the 20-day low $1,024, placing the close at the 26.0% channel position. The five-day change is -1.05% and the 20-day change +0.44%. ATR is $18.5536. Soybean oil (ZL=F) rose 2.67% to $47.30/lb, while soybean meal (ZM=F) fell 0.71% to $293.80/short ton.
3. Macro Landscape
The macro environment on 2025-02-18 remains defined by a restrictive but stable Federal Reserve stance. The effective federal funds rate stands at 4.33%, unchanged in the latest reading, while the Fed's total balance sheet was $6,813,513mn as of 2025-02-12, reflecting the ongoing quantitative tightening program. The overnight reverse repo facility held $77.82bn as of 2025-02-18, indicating that system liquidity remains adequate but has declined from pandemic-era peaks.
Inflation data shows the unadjusted CPI index at 319.679 as of 2025-02-01, with the core PCE price index — the Fed's preferred inflation anchor — at 125.145. These levels, combined with a 4.33% policy rate, imply a real policy rate comfortably above 2%, maintaining pressure on non-yielding assets. The 10-year TIPS real yield of 2.10% as of 2025-02-18 is a critical input for gold valuation, and the metal's ability to rally despite this elevated real yield underscores the strength of safe-haven demand.
The Treasury curve shows a 10-year minus 2-year spread of +26bp, a positive but modest slope that is consistent with a soft-landing scenario rather than an imminent recession. The 10-year nominal yield stands at 4.55%, per the cross-asset data, while the 2-year implied yield is approximately 4.29%. The high-yield credit spread of 262bp remains well contained, signaling no acute liquidity stress in corporate credit.
Labor market data shows total nonfarm payrolls at 158,310 thousand as of 2025-02-01, with the unemployment rate at 4.20%. This combination suggests a labor market that is cooling but not deteriorating sharply.
The US dollar, as measured by the DXY index, stands at 107.05, a firm level that historically acts as a headwind for dollar-denominated commodities. Equity markets show the S&P 500 futures (ES=F) at 6,146.75 and Nasdaq futures (NQ=F) at 22,232.25, indicating risk-on sentiment. The VIX at 15.35 reflects subdued volatility expectations, which typically supports carry-oriented commodity strategies but offers limited downside protection.
4. Fund Positioning - CFTC
According to CFTC Commitments of Traders data for the report date 2025-02-18, positioning across the commodity complex reveals divergent sentiment.
Gold. Managed-money net length stood at 185,329 contracts, comprising 222,538 long and 37,209 short positions against total open interest of 522,330. The weekly change was -9,474 contracts, marking a reduction in net length despite the price rally. The long-to-short ratio of approximately 5.98:1 indicates a still-crowded long positioning, and the reduction suggests some profit-taking into strength. This is a mildly contrarian signal: prices rose while net length fell, implying that the rally may have been driven by short-covering or non-reportable buying rather than fresh managed-money accumulation.
Silver. Net length was 38,306 contracts (58,305 long, 19,999 short) against open interest of 170,107. The weekly change was +3,930 contracts, showing constructive accumulation. The long-to-short ratio of 2.92:1 is less extreme than gold's, leaving room for further positioning build.
Crude Oil. Net length fell sharply by 24,412 contracts to 105,892 (189,761 long, 83,869 short) against open interest of 1,752,594. This is the largest weekly decline among the tracked contracts and aligns with the 7.74% 20-day price decline. The long-to-short ratio of 2.26:1 suggests that speculative length has been substantially reduced, which historically can precede a stabilization if fundamental balances tighten.
Natural Gas. Net length surged by 29,981 contracts to 104,031 (241,387 long, 137,356 short) against open interest of 1,578,394. This is the largest weekly increase in the dataset and corroborates the 16.35% five-day price rally. The long-to-short ratio of 1.76:1 indicates that positioning, while building, is not yet at extreme levels.
Copper. Net length rose by 5,613 contracts to 30,046 (80,431 long, 50,385 short) against open interest of 238,331. The long-to-short ratio of 1.60:1 is the least crowded among the tracked contracts, yet copper prices fell 1.54% on the day and 2.46% over five sessions — a divergence that may signal either hedging activity or a lag between positioning and price.
In aggregate, the data suggests that speculative capital is rotating out of crude oil and, to a lesser extent, gold, while rotating into natural gas and silver. The most crowded trade remains gold on a long-to-short basis, while copper offers the most balanced positioning.
5. Today's Focus
The economic calendar for 2025-02-18 shows no scheduled data releases in the provided dataset. Market participants will therefore focus on the following developments.
First, the EIA inventory data for the week ending 2025-02-14 showed crude inventories at 432,493 thousand barrels, a weekly build of 4,633 thousand barrels. Gasoline inventories stood at 247,902 thousand barrels, a draw of 151 thousand barrels, while distillate inventories were 116,564 thousand barrels, a draw of 2,051 thousand barrels. Refinery utilization was 84.90%. The crude build is bearish for WTI, though the distillate draw provides a partial offset. Traders will watch whether the crude build persists in the next report.
Second, the natural gas rally of 7.57% will be scrutinized for sustainability. With the contract at the 95.9% channel position and CFTC net length up nearly 30,000 contracts, the market is pricing in either a weather-driven demand surge or supply disruption. Any moderation in forecasts could trigger a sharp reversal given the extended positioning.
Third, gold's resilience above $2,900/oz despite a 2.10% real yield and a 107.05 DXY will remain in focus. The metal's 93.7% channel position and record-high ATR of $43.95 suggest that volatility is likely to persist, with the 2025-02-14 high of $2,944.40 as the immediate resistance level.
6. Technical Outlook
Gold (GC=F). The contract is in a well-established uptrend, with the close of $2,931.60 above the pivot of $2,913.93 and the 20-day low of $2,724.80. The 20-day change of +6.83% and the 93.7% channel position confirm strong momentum. Immediate resistance is at R1 of $2,954.07, followed by the 20-day high of $2,945.40. Immediate support is at S1 of $2,891.47, with the pivot at $2,913.93 serving as the first line of defense. The ATR of $43.95 is elevated, implying a daily expected range of roughly $44. Given the crowded long positioning (net 185,329 contracts) and the weekly reduction of 9,474 contracts, the risk-reward for fresh longs is less favorable. A buy-on-dips approach toward the pivot of $2,913.93 may be preferable to chasing the breakout, with a stop below S1 of $2,891.47.
Crude Oil (CL=F). The contract remains in a downtrend on a 20-day basis (-7.74%) but is attempting to stabilize. The close of $71.85 is above the pivot of $71.35 and above S1 of $70.62. The 20-day low of $70.12 was tested and held on 2025-02-18, forming a potential double-bottom with the 2025-02-14 low of $70.52. Immediate resistance is at R1 of $72.57, followed by the 20-day high of $78.47. The ATR of $1.8357 suggests a daily range of approximately $1.84. The sharp reduction in CFTC net length (-24,412 contracts) indicates that speculative selling may be exhausted. A tactical buy-on-dips toward $70.62 (S1) with a stop below $70.12 could offer a favorable risk-reward, targeting $72.57 initially.
Copper (HG=F). The contract is in a consolidation phase, with the close of $4.585 above the pivot of $4.5763 but below the 20-day high of $4.77. The five-day change of -2.46% contrasts with the 20-day change of +5.71%, indicating a pullback within a broader uptrend. Immediate resistance is at R1 of $4.6026, followed by the 20-day high of $4.77. Immediate support is at S1 of $4.5586, with the 20-day low of $4.202 providing a deeper floor. The ATR of $0.0861 is modest. Given the balanced CFTC positioning (long-to-short ratio of 1.60:1) and the constructive 20-day trend, a buy-on-dips approach toward S1 of $4.5586 may be appropriate, with a stop below $4.55.
7. Cross-Asset Monitor
The cross-asset data for 2025-02-18 provides several important signals. The gold-silver ratio stands at 87.99, near the upper end of its recent range, suggesting that silver remains relatively undervalued versus gold. The copper-gold ratio is 0.001564, reflecting copper's underperformance relative to gold on the day. The oil-gold ratio is 0.0245, indicating that crude oil remains inexpensive relative to gold on a historical basis.
The crack spread (3-2-1) is $20.75, a level that supports refinery margins and may encourage higher utilization, which would be bearish for crude inventories in the coming weeks. The DXY index at 107.05 remains a headwind for dollar-denominated commodities, yet gold's rally suggests that safe-haven and central-bank demand are outweighing currency effects.
The 10-year Treasury yield of 4.55% and the 10-year TIPS real yield of 2.10% create a challenging backdrop for non-yielding assets. Historically, gold and real yields are inversely correlated, so the metal's strength implies that other drivers — geopolitical risk, central-bank buying, or inflation hedging — are dominant.
The VIX at 15.35 indicates low equity market volatility, which typically coincides with risk-on sentiment and supports industrial commodities. However, the GVZ (gold VIX) and OVX (oil VIX) are unavailable in the dataset, limiting the ability to assess commodity-specific volatility expectations.
The energy complex shows natural gas outperforming crude oil by a wide margin (7.57% vs. 1.57%), widening the implied NG-CL spread. The base metals basket is mixed, with copper down 1.54% while aluminum (ALI=F) rose 1.00% to $2,638.25 and zinc (ZNC=F) was unchanged at $2,297.00.
8. Risk Factors
1. Crowded gold positioning. CFTC net length of 185,329 contracts remains near multi-year highs. A weekly reduction of 9,474 contracts signals early profit-taking. A further unwind could accelerate a price correction, particularly if real yields rise.
2. Natural gas reversal risk. The 7.57% single-day gain and 16.35% five-day advance have pushed the contract to the 95.9% channel position. CFTC net length rose 29,981 contracts. Any moderation in weather-driven demand could trigger a sharp reversal.
3. Crude oil inventory build. EIA data showed a 4,633 thousand-barrel crude build for the week ending 2025-02-14. A second consecutive build could pressure WTI below the $70.12 support level.
4. Dollar strength. The DXY at 107.05 remains a headwind. A break above recent highs could weigh on the entire commodity complex.
5. Credit spread widening. The high-yield spread of 262bp is tight. Any widening would signal liquidity stress and could trigger risk-off flows across commodities.
9. Week Ahead
The economic calendar for the next five trading days is unavailable in the provided dataset. Market participants will monitor the following scheduled events and themes.
Federal Reserve communications. With the effective fed funds rate at 4.33% and core PCE at 125.145, any Fed speakers may provide guidance on the timing of rate adjustments. The 10-year TIPS real yield of 2.10% will be a key input.
EIA inventory data. The next weekly report will be scrutinized for confirmation of the crude build and the distillate draw. Refinery utilization at 84.90% leaves room for an increase, which could support crude demand.
OPEC+ developments. No scheduled meeting is indicated in the data, but any commentary on production quotas would impact crude oil.
CFTC positioning updates. The next Commitments of Traders report will reveal whether the gold net-length reduction and natural gas net-length increase continue.
Macro data. The unemployment rate at 4.20% and nonfarm payrolls at 158,310 thousand will be updated in the coming weeks. Any deviation from expectations could shift Fed policy expectations.
10. Trading Desk Summary
- Gold: Uptrend intact but crowded. Buy dips toward $2,913.93 (pivot) with a stop below $2,891.47 (S1). Resistance at $2,954.07 (R1).
- Silver: Constructive positioning (+3,930 contracts). Watch for a break above $33.36 (session high) toward $34.08 (20-day high).
- Crude Oil: Stabilization attempt at $70.12 support. Tactical buy toward $70.62 (S1) with a stop below $70.12, targeting $72.57 (R1).
- Natural Gas: Extended at 95.9% channel position. Avoid chasing; consider profit-taking or a tight stop below $3.8593 (pivot).
- Copper: Consolidation within an uptrend. Buy dips toward $4.5586 (S1) with a stop below $4.55.
- Soybeans: Range-bound at 26.0% channel position. Neutral; watch $1,024 (20-day low) as support.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.