1. Executive Summary
Precious and base metals, energy and agricultural commodities closed broadly lower on 2025-02-28, with the sell-off concentrated in the metals complex and natural gas. Gold settled at 2836.80, down 1.61% on the day, extending its five-day decline to 3.43% and leaving it 31.60% of the way up its 20-day high-low channel (20-day high 2957.8999, 20-day low 2780.8999). Silver fell 1.83% to 31.2190, a five-day decline of 5.33%, and sits at 4.50% of its 20-day channel. Crude oil (CL=F) closed at 69.76, down 0.84%, with a five-day change of -0.91% and a 20-day change of -4.08%. Natural gas was the weakest major contract, down 2.54% to 3.8340, with a five-day decline of 9.45% despite a 20-day gain of 25.83%. Copper eased 1.43% to 4.5145, and soybeans fell 1.10% to 1011.50.
The macro driver remains the combination of a firm dollar and positive real rates. The dollar index (DX-Y.NYB) stood at 107.61 on 2025-02-28, while the 10-year TIPS real yield (DFII10) was 1.86% and the 10-year nominal yield (^TNX) was 4.2310%. The effective fed funds rate (FEDFUNDS) was 4.33% as of 2025-02-01, and the 10-year minus 2-year spread (T10Y2Y) was +0.25%, a positive but shallow curve. The BofA high-yield spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) at 2.87% indicates no acute liquidity stress, while the Fed's overnight reverse repo balance (RRPONTSYD) was 234.422 billion dollars and the Fed's total balance sheet (RESPPANWW) was 6,766,101 million dollars as of 2025-02-26, confirming continued quantitative tightening.
Positioning data reinforced the bearish tone. According to CFTC data for the week ended 2025-02-25, crude oil net length fell 37,119 contracts to 68,773, copper net length fell 11,389 to 18,657, gold net length fell 5,517 to 179,812 and silver net length fell 5,367 to 32,939. Natural gas was the sole major gainer, with net length up 2,789 to 106,820. EIA data for the week ended 2025-02-28 showed crude inventories up 3,614 thousand barrels to 433,775 thousand barrels, gasoline inventories down 1,433 thousand barrels to 246,838 thousand barrels and distillate inventories down 1,318 thousand barrels to 119,154 thousand barrels, with refinery utilization at 85.9%.
The primary risk factor for today is the persistence of dollar strength and positive real yields, which historically weigh on non-yielding assets such as gold and silver, combined with the continued reduction of speculative length in crude oil and copper. A secondary risk is the volatility in natural gas, where the five-day decline of 9.45% contrasts sharply with the 20-day gain of 25.83%, indicating a market prone to sharp reversals.
2. Overnight Market Recap
Gold (GC=F). Gold settled at 2836.80 on 2025-02-28, down 1.61% from the prior close of 2883.20. The session opened at 2877.1001, reached a high of 2877.1001 and a low of 2834.1001, closing near the session low. The five-day change was -3.43% and the 20-day change was +0.49%. The 20-day high stands at 2957.8999 and the 20-day low at 2780.8999, placing the close at 31.60% of the 20-day channel. The ATR was 42.6571. Volume and open interest for the session were not available in the dataset. The move extended a sequence of lower closes since the 2025-02-24 high of 2947.8999, with declines of 1.47% on 2025-02-25, a 0.42% bounce on 2025-02-26, a 1.15% drop on 2025-02-27 and the 1.61% decline on 2025-02-28.
Silver (SI=F). Silver closed at 31.2190, down 1.83% from 31.801. The session opened at 31.575, with a high of 31.645 and a low of 31.085. The five-day change was -5.33% and the 20-day change was -3.54%. The 20-day high is 34.0800 and the 20-day low is 31.0850, placing the close at 4.50% of the channel, near the bottom of the recent range. The ATR was 0.6181. Silver has now declined in four of the last five sessions, including a 2.38% drop on 2025-02-25 and a 1.40% decline on 2025-02-27.
Crude Oil (CL=F). WTI crude settled at 69.76, down 0.84% from 70.35. The session opened at 70.17, with a high of 70.29 and a low of 69.14. The five-day change was -0.91% and the 20-day change was -4.08%. The 20-day high is 75.1800 and the 20-day low is 68.3600, placing the close at 20.50% of the channel. The ATR was 1.6543. The prior session, 2025-02-27, saw a 2.52% rebound, which was partially retraced on 2025-02-28. Brent (BZ=F) closed at 73.18, down 1.16%, with a five-day change of -1.68% and a 20-day change of -4.80%.
Natural Gas (NG=F). Natural gas closed at 3.8340, down 2.54% from 3.934. The session opened at 3.939, with a high of 3.954 and a low of 3.814. The five-day change was -9.45%, while the 20-day change was +25.83%. The 20-day high is 4.4760 and the 20-day low is 2.9900, placing the close at 56.80% of the channel. The ATR was 0.2669. The contract has been highly volatile, with a 6.42% decline on 2025-02-26, a 0.72% gain on 2025-02-27 and the 2.54% decline on 2025-02-28.
Copper (HG=F). Copper closed at 4.5145, down 1.43% from 4.58. The session opened at 4.556, with a high of 4.5565 and a low of 4.4795. The five-day change was -1.00% and the 20-day change was +5.28%. The 20-day high is 4.7700 and the 20-day low is 4.2470, placing the close at 51.10% of the channel. The ATR was 0.0871.
Soybeans (ZS=F). Soybeans closed at 1011.50, down 1.10% from 1022.75. The session opened at 1023.25, with a high of 1031.50 and a low of 1011, closing at the session low. The five-day change was -2.69% and the 20-day change was -3.11%. The 20-day high is 1079.75 and the 20-day low is 1011, placing the close at 0.70% of the channel, essentially at the bottom of the range. The ATR was 15.0536. Related agricultural contracts were also weak: corn (ZC=F) fell 2.42% to 453.50, soybean oil (ZL=F) fell 2.73% to 43.53 and wheat (ZW=F) fell 1.78% to 537.00.
3. Macro Landscape
The macro backdrop on 2025-02-28 remains restrictive for commodity prices. The dollar index (DX-Y.NYB) stood at 107.61, a level that historically correlates with headwinds for dollar-denominated commodities. The 10-year nominal Treasury yield (^TNX) was 4.2310%, while the 10-year TIPS real yield (DFII10) was 1.86%. Positive real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold and silver, which is consistent with the 1.61% and 1.83% declines in those metals on the day.
The policy rate remains elevated. The effective fed funds rate (FEDFUNDS) was 4.33% as of 2025-02-01, and the Fed's total balance sheet (RESPPANWW) was 6,766,101 million dollars as of 2025-02-26, indicating that quantitative tightening continues. The overnight reverse repo balance (RRPONTSYD) was 234.422 billion dollars on 2025-02-28, a measure of liquidity in the financial system. The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread (T10Y2Y) was +0.25%, a positive but shallow curve that suggests neither a pronounced recession signal nor a strong reflation impulse.
Inflation data show the core PCE price index (PCEPILFE) at 125.1450 as of 2025-02-01, while the unadjusted CPI index (CPIAUCSL) was 319.6790. The labor market remains firm, with non-farm payrolls (PAYEMS) at 158,310 thousand and the unemployment rate (UNRATE) at 4.2% as of 2025-02-01. Credit conditions appear orderly, with the BofA high-yield spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) at 2.87%, well below levels associated with acute liquidity stress.
Equity futures were indicated at ES=F 5963.25 and NQ=F 20919.50, while the VIX (vix_index) stood at 19.63, a level that suggests moderate but not extreme risk aversion. The combination of a firm dollar, positive real yields and a VIX near 20 is consistent with the broad commodity weakness observed on the day. No central bank policy updates were available in the dataset for 2025-02-28.
4. Fund Positioning - CFTC
According to CFTC Commitments of Traders data for the week ended 2025-02-25, positioning across the major commodity complexes was dominated by long liquidation, with natural gas the sole exception.
Crude Oil. Net length fell 37,119 contracts to 68,773, the largest weekly reduction among the major contracts. Gross longs stood at 177,427 and gross shorts at 108,654, against total open interest of 1,768,799. The magnitude of the reduction suggests that speculative accounts reduced exposure aggressively as WTI traded below 70 dollars.
Copper. Net length fell 11,389 contracts to 18,657, with gross longs at 70,584 and gross shorts at 51,927 against open interest of 222,133. The reduction in copper length is notable given that the 20-day price change remains positive at +5.28%, suggesting that some of the recent rally has been driven by positioning that is now being unwound.
Gold. Net length fell 5,517 contracts to 179,812, with gross longs at 212,694 and gross shorts at 32,882 against open interest of 512,179. Gold retains the largest net long position among the contracts in the dataset, and the long-to-short ratio of approximately 6.5 to 1 indicates that positioning remains crowded on the long side despite the weekly reduction.
Silver. Net length fell 5,367 contracts to 32,939, with gross longs at 51,338 and gross shorts at 18,399 against open interest of 163,681. The reduction is consistent with the 5.33% five-day price decline.
Natural Gas. Net length rose 2,789 contracts to 106,820, with gross longs at 239,485 and gross shorts at 132,665 against open interest of 1,595,779. This was the only major contract to see a weekly increase in net length, even as the price fell 9.45% over five sessions, suggesting that some accounts added length into the decline.
From a contrarian perspective, the large and still-elevated gold net long and the substantial natural gas net long are the two positions most vulnerable to further liquidation if price weakness persists. The crude oil net long, at 68,773, is now materially below its recent peak following the 37,119-contract reduction, which reduces the crowding risk in that contract.
5. Today's Focus
The economic calendar for 2025-02-28 contained no scheduled releases in the dataset provided. Market focus therefore centers on the following.
EIA inventory data. According to EIA data for the week ended 2025-02-28, crude inventories rose 3,614 thousand barrels to 433,775 thousand barrels. Gasoline inventories fell 1,433 thousand barrels to 246,838 thousand barrels, and distillate inventories fell 1,318 thousand barrels to 119,154 thousand barrels. Refinery utilization stood at 85.9%. The crude build, combined with the product draws, presents a mixed picture for the energy complex, though the headline crude increase is consistent with the 0.84% decline in WTI on the day.
Positioning cleanup. The CFTC data for the week ended 2025-02-25 showed significant reductions in crude oil, copper, gold and silver net length. The market is digesting whether this liquidation is complete or whether further reductions are likely, particularly in gold where net length remains the largest in the dataset.
Dollar and real yields. With the dollar index at 107.61 and the 10-year TIPS real yield at 1.86%, the macro configuration remains the dominant driver for precious metals. Any further firmness in the dollar or real yields would likely add to pressure on gold and silver, while a reversal would be the primary catalyst for a bounce.
6. Technical Outlook
Gold (GC=F). The trend has shifted to corrective within a broader range. The close of 2836.80 is below the pivot of 2849.3334 and below the first support at 2821.5667 is the next level to watch. The first resistance is 2864.5667. The ATR of 42.6571 indicates that daily ranges remain wide relative to the price level. The close at 31.60% of the 20-day channel (high 2957.8999, low 2780.8999) places gold in the lower portion of its recent range. The sequence of lower highs since 2025-02-24 (2947.8999) and lower closes through 2025-02-28 is characteristic of a short-term downtrend. A sustained break below 2821.5667 could open the 20-day low at 2780.8999, while a recovery above the pivot at 2849.3334 would be needed to stabilize the tone. Given the positive real yield backdrop, rallies may be capped, and the technical posture suggests caution on the long side until the pivot is reclaimed.
Crude Oil (CL=F). WTI closed at 69.76, essentially at the pivot of 69.7300. The first resistance is 70.3200 and the first support is 69.1700. The ATR of 1.6543 is moderate. The close at 20.50% of the 20-day channel (high 75.1800, low 68.3600) places crude in the lower portion of its range, and the 20-day change of -4.08% confirms the downtrend. The 2025-02-27 rebound of 2.52% failed to hold, and the 2025-02-28 decline of 0.84% resumed the broader move lower. A break below 69.1700 could target the 20-day low at 68.3600, while a move above 70.3200 would be needed to signal a short-term reversal. The large reduction in CFTC net length reduces the risk of a positioning-driven squeeze but does not by itself provide a bullish catalyst.
Copper (HG=F). Copper closed at 4.5145, just below the pivot of 4.5168. The first resistance is 4.5541 and the first support is 4.4771. The ATR of 0.0871 is modest. The close at 51.10% of the 20-day channel (high 4.7700, low 4.2470) places copper near the middle of its range, and the 20-day change of +5.28% remains positive even as the five-day change is -1.00%. The 1.43% decline on 2025-02-28, combined with the 11,389-contract reduction in net length, suggests that the recent rally is being tested. A hold above 4.4771 would keep the medium-term uptrend intact, while a break below could target the 20-day low at 4.2470.
7. Cross-Asset Monitor
The cross-asset data for 2025-02-28 show the following relationships. The gold-silver ratio stood at 90.87, a high level that reflects silver's underperformance relative to gold; silver fell 1.83% on the day versus gold's 1.61% decline, and silver's five-day decline of 5.33% compares with gold's 3.43%. The copper-gold ratio was 0.001591, and the oil-gold ratio was 0.0246. The crack spread (3-2-1) was 18.38, a measure of refining margin.
The dollar index at 107.61 remains the key cross-asset driver. The 10-year Treasury yield at 4.2400% and the 10-year TIPS real yield at 1.86% together define a restrictive real-rate environment. The VIX at 19.63 indicates moderate equity market risk aversion, which is consistent with the broad commodity declines but does not suggest panic. The Fed's overnight reverse repo balance at 234.42 billion dollars and the Fed's total balance sheet at 6,766,101 million dollars as of 2025-02-26 confirm that liquidity is being drained gradually.
Within the energy complex, WTI at 69.76 and Brent at 73.18 imply a WTI-Brent spread of approximately -3.42 dollars, with Brent at a premium. Natural gas at 3.8340 fell 2.54% while crude fell 0.84%, widening the divergence between the two energy benchmarks. In the base metals, copper at 4.5145 fell 1.43%, while aluminum (ALI=F) fell 1.34% to 2561.50 and zinc (ZNC=F) was unchanged at 2297.00. The agricultural complex was broadly weaker, with corn down 2.42%, soybean oil down 2.73%, wheat down 1.78% and soybeans down 1.10%.
8. Risk Factors
1. Dollar strength and positive real yields. The dollar index at 107.61 and the 10-year TIPS real yield at 1.86% remain the primary headwinds for gold and silver. Further firmness in either would likely extend the metals decline.
2. Continued position liquidation. CFTC data for the week ended 2025-02-25 showed net length reductions in crude oil (-37,119), copper (-11,389), gold (-5,517) and silver (-5,367). If liquidation continues, prices could face additional pressure, particularly in gold where net length remains the largest in the dataset at 179,812.
3. Natural gas volatility. The five-day decline of 9.45% contrasts with the 20-day gain of 25.83%, and the ATR of 0.2669 indicates wide daily ranges. The contract is prone to sharp reversals in either direction.
4. Crude oil inventory build. EIA data for the week ended 2025-02-28 showed a crude inventory build of 3,614 thousand barrels to 433,775 thousand barrels, which may weigh on prices if demand does not absorb the additional supply.
5. Agricultural weakness. Soybeans closed at the bottom of their 20-day range (0.70% of the channel), and corn, wheat and soybean oil all declined more than 1.7% on the day, indicating broad weakness in the agricultural complex.
9. Week Ahead
The economic calendar for the next five trading days was not available in the dataset provided. Market participants will continue to monitor the following. First, the trajectory of the dollar index and the 10-year TIPS real yield, which remain the dominant macro drivers for precious metals. Second, any further CFTC positioning data, with the next report covering the week ending 2025-03-04, which will indicate whether the liquidation in crude oil, copper, gold and silver has run its course. Third, energy inventory data, with the next EIA release covering the week ending 2025-03-07, following the crude build of 3,614 thousand barrels reported for the week ended 2025-02-28. Fourth, any OPEC+ commentary or central bank communications, though none were scheduled in the dataset. Fifth, the natural gas market, where the divergence between the five-day decline and the 20-day gain warrants close attention.
10. Trading Desk Summary
- Gold closed at 2836.80, down 1.61%, below the pivot of 2849.3334; first support at 2821.5667, first resistance at 2864.5667.
- Silver closed at 31.2190, down 1.83%, at 4.50% of its 20-day channel; gold-silver ratio at 90.87.
- WTI crude closed at 69.76, down 0.84%, essentially at the pivot of 69.7300; EIA reported a crude build of 3,614 thousand barrels.
- Natural gas closed at 3.8340, down 2.54%, with a five-day decline of 9.45% against a 20-day gain of 25.83%.
- Copper closed at 4.5145, down 1.43%, just below the pivot of 4.5168; CFTC net length fell 11,389 contracts.
- Soybeans closed at 1011.50, down 1.10%, at the bottom of their 20-day range.
- CFTC data for the week ended 2025-02-25 showed net length reductions in crude oil, copper, gold and silver, with natural gas the sole gainer.
- Macro configuration: dollar index 107.61, 10-year TIPS real yield 1.86%, fed funds 4.33%, VIX 19.63.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.