1. Executive Summary
Natural gas was the dominant mover in the 2025-03-04 session, with NG=F settling at $4.3500 for a gain of 5.53% on the day, extending its 5-day advance to 4.22% and its 20-day advance to 29.77%. The contract closed at 85.5% of its 20-day high-low range, with the 20-day high at $4.5510 and the 20-day low at $3.1610. Gold (GC=F) settled at $2,909.6001, up 0.67%, holding a 20-day gain of 2.67% and sitting at 65.9% of its 20-day range. Silver (SI=F) closed at $32.1080, up 0.24%, with a 5-day gain of 0.97% but a 20-day decline of 0.88%. Crude oil (CL=F) settled at $68.2600, down 0.16%, with a 20-day decline of 6.70%, while Brent (BZ=F) closed at $71.0400, down 0.81%. Copper (HG=F) fell 1.07% to $4.5275 despite a 20-day gain of 5.44%. Soybeans (ZS=F) settled at $984.0000, down 1.43%, with a 20-day decline of 7.02%.
The key macro driver remains the restrictive policy backdrop. According to the provided macro data, the fed funds effective rate stands at 4.33% and the 10-year TIPS real yield at 1.87%, while the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread is +0.26%, indicating a positively sloped but shallow curve. The BAML high-yield credit spread at 2.99% suggests contained but non-trivial credit stress. The VIX at 23.51 points to above-average equity volatility, a backdrop that historically supports precious metals demand while weighing on cyclical commodities.
The primary risk factor for today is positioning crowding in natural gas, where CFTC net length stands at 108,350 contracts against total open interest of 1,631,662, alongside a 29.77% 20-day price advance. A reversal in weather-driven demand or a shift in storage expectations could trigger outsized liquidation. Secondary risks include the elevated VIX at 23.51 and the continued erosion in agricultural prices, with soybeans, corn (ZC=F at 436.0000, -0.97%), and wheat (ZW=F at 518.5000, -2.54%) all under pressure.
2. Overnight Market Recap
Gold (GC=F). Gold settled at $2,909.6001 on 2025-03-04, a gain of 0.67% from the prior close of $2,890.20. The session opened at $2,886.1001, printed a high of $2,927.8999 and a low of $2,886.1001, an intraday range of approximately $41.80, consistent with the ATR of 41.8785. The move extends a 5-day gain of 0.18% and a 20-day gain of 2.67%. The 20-day high stands at $2,957.8999 and the 20-day low at $2,816.1001, placing the close at 65.9% of the 20-day range. Volume and open interest for the session are Data unavailable in the provided dataset. The prior session (2025-03-03) saw a 1.88% advance, meaning gold has now risen in two consecutive sessions following the 1.61% decline on 2025-02-28.
Silver (SI=F). Silver closed at $32.1080, up 0.24% from the prior close of $32.0320. The session opened at $31.8400, with a high of $32.2900 and a low of $31.7700, an intraday range of $0.52 against an ATR of 0.6661. The 5-day change is +0.97% and the 20-day change is -0.88%. The 20-day high is $34.0800 and the 20-day low is $31.0850, placing the close at 34.2% of the 20-day range. The gold-silver ratio stands at 90.62 according to the cross-asset data, a level that historically has coincided with silver underperformance relative to gold.
Crude Oil (CL=F). WTI settled at $68.2600, down 0.16% from the prior close of $68.3700. The session opened at $68.4600, traded a high of $68.5600 and a low of $66.7700, an intraday range of $1.79 against an ATR of 1.7564. The 5-day change is -0.97% and the 20-day change is -6.70%. The 20-day high is $73.6800 and the 20-day low is $66.7700, placing the close at 21.6% of the 20-day range. Brent (BZ=F) settled at $71.0400, down 0.81%, with a 20-day decline of 6.48%. The WTI-Brent spread implied by the two settlements is approximately $2.78.
Natural Gas (NG=F). Natural gas was the standout performer, settling at $4.3500 for a gain of 5.53% from the prior close of $4.1220. The session opened at $4.1680, printed a high of $4.5510 and a low of $4.0560, an intraday range of $0.495 against an ATR of 0.3100. The 5-day change is +4.22% and the 20-day change is +29.77%. The close sits at 85.5% of the 20-day range, with the 20-day high at $4.5510 and the 20-day low at $3.1610. This follows a 7.51% advance on 2025-03-03, meaning the contract has gained approximately 13.5% over two sessions.
Copper (HG=F). Copper settled at $4.5275, down 1.07% from the prior close of $4.5765. The session opened at $4.5660, with a high of $4.5670 and a low of $4.5000, an intraday range of $0.067 against an ATR of 0.0807. The 5-day change is +0.93% and the 20-day change is +5.44%. The 20-day high is $4.7700 and the 20-day low is $4.3250, placing the close at 45.5% of the 20-day range.
Soybeans (ZS=F). Soybeans settled at $984.0000, down 1.43% from the prior close of $998.25. The session opened at $995.25, traded a high of $1,000.25 and a low of $978.00, an intraday range of $22.25 against an ATR of 16.2500. The 5-day change is -4.58% and the 20-day change is -7.02%. The close sits at 5.9% of the 20-day range, with the 20-day high at $1,079.75 and the 20-day low at $978.00 — the session low matched the 20-day low. Soybean meal (ZM=F) settled at $285.9000, down 1.45%, and soybean oil (ZL=F) at $42.2700, down 1.47%.
3. Macro Landscape
The macro backdrop on 2025-03-04 remains defined by a restrictive Federal Reserve stance and a modestly positive term premium. According to the provided macro data, the fed funds effective rate (FEDFUNDS) stands at 4.33% as of 2025-03-01, unchanged in the latest reading. The 10-year TIPS real yield (DFII10) is 1.8700% as of 2025-03-04, a level that continues to represent a meaningful real cost of carry for non-yielding assets such as gold and silver. The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread (T10Y2Y) is +0.2600% as of 2025-03-04, indicating a positively sloped but shallow curve consistent with a soft-landing baseline rather than an imminent recession signal.
Inflation data show the unadjusted CPI index (CPIAUCSL) at 319.7850 as of 2025-03-01, while the core PCE price index (PCEPILFE) — described in the dataset as the Fed's core inflation anchor — stands at 125.2670. The high-yield credit spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) at 2.9900% as of 2025-03-04 signals contained credit stress; readings below 3% are generally consistent with benign liquidity conditions, though the proximity to that threshold warrants monitoring.
Labor market data show total nonfarm payrolls (PAYEMS) at 158,377 thousand as of 2025-03-01 and the unemployment rate (UNRATE) at 4.2000%. The Fed's total balance sheet (RESPPANWW) stands at $6,766,101 million as of 2025-02-26, reflecting the ongoing quantitative tightening trajectory, while the overnight reverse repo facility (RRPONTSYD) stands at $135.257 billion as of 2025-03-04.
Cross-asset readings from the provided data show the US 10-year yield at 4.2200%, the DXY dollar index at 105.7400, and the VIX at 23.51. The elevated VIX is consistent with risk-off hedging demand, which typically provides a tailwind to gold and a headwind to industrial metals and energy. The dollar at 105.74 represents a firm backdrop that mechanically pressures dollar-denominated commodity prices. No central bank policy updates or equity index levels (SPX) are available in the provided dataset; those fields are Data unavailable.
4. Fund Positioning - CFTC
According to CFTC Commitments of Traders data for the report date 2025-03-04, positioning across the commodity complex was mixed, with notable shifts in crude oil and gold.
Crude Oil. Managed money net length rose by 29,876 contracts week-over-week to 98,649. Long positions total 171,447 against short positions of 72,798, on total open interest of 1,816,244. The magnitude of the weekly increase — the largest in the dataset — indicates that speculative capital added length into a declining price environment (crude fell 6.70% over 20 days), a configuration that can amplify downside volatility if momentum persists.
Gold. Net length fell by 13,154 contracts week-over-week to 166,658, the largest weekly decline in the dataset. Long positions stand at 204,965 against shorts of 38,307, on open interest of 489,270. Despite the reduction, gold net length remains the highest absolute net position among the tracked contracts, and the long-to-short ratio of approximately 5.35:1 indicates a still-crowded long base. This reduction occurred alongside a modest 0.18% 5-day price gain, suggesting profit-taking rather than a directional reversal.
Natural Gas. Net length rose by 1,530 contracts to 108,350, with longs at 248,129 and shorts at 139,779, on open interest of 1,631,662. The long-to-short ratio of approximately 1.78:1 is the least extended among the energy contracts, but the position is being held into a 29.77% 20-day price advance, raising the risk of crowded-trade dynamics.
Silver. Net length rose by 1,159 contracts to 34,098, with longs at 47,878 and shorts at 13,780, on open interest of 145,935. The long-to-short ratio of approximately 3.47:1 is elevated relative to copper but below gold.
Copper. Net length fell by 9,755 contracts to 8,902, the second-largest weekly decline. Longs stand at 64,740 against shorts of 55,838, on open interest of 218,780. The long-to-short ratio of approximately 1.16:1 is the least crowded in the dataset, and the sharp reduction in net length alongside a 5.44% 20-day price gain suggests speculative longs are reducing exposure into strength.
In aggregate, the positioning data show the most crowded long in gold (net 166,658) and the most aggressive weekly additions in crude oil (+29,876) and natural gas (+1,530), while copper (-9,755) and gold (-13,154) saw the largest reductions. Contrarian signals are most pronounced in copper, where the net position has been substantially reduced even as prices remain above the 20-day midpoint.
5. Today's Focus
The provided economic calendar for the next seven days is empty (N/A), and no headlines for the past 48 hours are available in the dataset. Accordingly, the focus for 2025-03-04 centers on the following observable data points:
1. Natural gas momentum and range positioning. NG=F closed at 85.5% of its 20-day range after a 5.53% single-session advance and a 7.51% advance in the prior session. With the 20-day high at $4.5510 and the pivot at $4.3190, the market's ability to hold above the pivot is the key intraday reference. The CFTC net length of 108,350 provides context for the sustainability of the move.
2. Crude oil inventory context. According to EIA data for the week ending 2025-02-28, crude inventories stand at 433,775 thousand barrels, a weekly build of 3,614 thousand barrels. Gasoline inventories fell 1,433 thousand barrels to 246,838 thousand barrels, and distillate inventories fell 1,318 thousand barrels to 119,154 thousand barrels. Refinery utilization stands at 85.90%. The crude build against product draws is a mixed signal for the complex, and the market's reaction function to this data remains the key near-term driver for WTI.
3. Precious metals real-rate sensitivity. With the 10-year TIPS real yield at 1.87% and gold up 0.67% on the session, the gold-real rate relationship is the primary macro transmission channel to monitor. The gold-silver ratio at 90.62 remains a key relative-value reference.
6. Technical Outlook
Gold (GC=F). The contract settled at $2,909.6001, above the pivot of $2,907.8667. The first resistance level (R1) is $2,929.6333 and the first support (S1) is $2,887.8335. The ATR is 41.8785, indicating an expected daily range of approximately $42. The 20-day high is $2,957.8999 and the 20-day low is $2,816.1001, with the close at 65.9% of that range. The trend structure is constructive: the 5-day change is +0.18% and the 20-day change is +2.67%, and the close is above the pivot. However, the CFTC net length reduction of 13,154 contracts suggests fading speculative momentum. A sustained break above R1 at $2,929.63 could open the path toward the 20-day high at $2,957.90, while a loss of S1 at $2,887.83 would shift the near-term bias toward the 20-day low. RSI and MACD values are Data unavailable in the provided dataset. Given the constructive trend but reduced positioning, a buy-dips posture above S1 is the technically consistent approach.
Crude Oil (CL=F). WTI settled at $68.2600, above the pivot of $67.8633. R1 is $68.9566 and S1 is $67.1666. The ATR is 1.7564. The 20-day high is $73.6800 and the 20-day low is $66.7700, with the close at 21.6% of that range — a weak positioning within the recent band. The 5-day change is -0.97% and the 20-day change is -6.70%, confirming a downtrend. The session low of $66.7700 matched the 20-day low, indicating that support was tested and held. The trend is down, and the close below R1 at $68.9566 keeps the bias defensive. A break below S1 at $67.1666 would expose the 20-day low at $66.7700; a reclaim of R1 would be the first sign of stabilization. RSI and MACD values are Data unavailable. The technically consistent posture is to sell rallies toward R1 rather than buy dips, given the downtrend and the 21.6% range position.
Copper (HG=F). Copper settled at $4.5275, marginally below the pivot of $4.5315. R1 is $4.5630 and S1 is $4.4960. The ATR is 0.0807. The 20-day high is $4.7700 and the 20-day low is $4.3250, with the close at 45.5% of that range — a neutral positioning. The 5-day change is +0.93% and the 20-day change is +5.44%, indicating a still-positive medium-term trend despite the 1.07% single-session decline. The CFTC net length reduction of 9,755 contracts is a cautionary signal. The close just below the pivot suggests a consolidation phase. A hold above S1 at $4.4960 would keep the uptrend intact; a break below would target the 20-day low at $4.3250. RSI and MACD values are Data unavailable. The technically consistent posture is neutral-to-constructive, with dips toward S1 representing the preferred entry zone if the 20-day trend holds.
7. Cross-Asset Monitor
USD vs Commodities. The DXY dollar index stands at 105.7400 as of 2025-03-04. A firm dollar is a mechanical headwind for dollar-denominated commodities, and the session's mixed performance — gold and silver higher, crude and copper lower — is consistent with a dollar-neutral to dollar-firm backdrop where safe-haven demand offsets the currency drag for precious metals.
Gold vs Real Yields. The 10-year TIPS real yield is 1.8700% and the US 10-year nominal yield is 4.2200%. Gold's 0.67% gain against a positive real yield of 1.87% indicates that non-yield-driven demand — likely safe-haven and central-bank related — is currently the dominant marginal price-setter. The gold-silver ratio at 90.62 reflects continued silver underperformance.
Energy Complex. The WTI-Brent spread is approximately $2.78 based on the settlements of $68.2600 and $71.0400. The crack spread (3-2-1) is reported at 25.20 in the cross-asset data. Natural gas at $4.3500 has decoupled from crude, with NG up 29.77% over 20 days against crude's -6.70%, reflecting distinct supply-demand drivers. The oil-gold ratio stands at 0.0235.
Base Metals Basket. Copper at $4.5275 is the primary base metals reference in the dataset. The copper-gold ratio is 0.001556. Aluminum (ALI=F) settled at $2,575.7500, up 0.31%, with a 20-day decline of 1.58%, and sits at 12.2% of its 20-day range. Zinc (ZNC=F) is unchanged at $2,297.0000 with no range data. The base metals complex is mixed, with copper's 20-day gain of 5.44% contrasting with aluminum's 20-day decline of 1.58%.
8. Risk Factors
1. Natural gas crowding. CFTC net length of 108,350 contracts combined with a 29.77% 20-day price advance and a close at 85.5% of the 20-day range creates elevated reversal risk if weather or storage data disappoint.
2. Elevated volatility. The VIX at 23.51 indicates above-average equity market volatility, which can spill over into broad commodity deleveraging, particularly in cyclical contracts such as copper and crude oil.
3. Crude oil speculative length into weakness. The 29,876-contract weekly increase in crude net length occurred alongside a 6.70% 20-day price decline, a configuration that raises the risk of a long-liquidation cascade if support at $66.7700 fails.
4. Agricultural downtrend. Soybeans at $984.0000 (-1.43%), corn at $436.0000 (-0.97%), and wheat at $518.5000 (-2.54%) are all in 20-day drawdowns of 7.02%, 10.79%, and 8.51% respectively, with soybeans closing at 5.9% of their 20-day range — a persistent downtrend with limited near-term support.
5. Credit spread proximity. The high-yield credit spread at 2.99% is close to the 3% threshold; a sustained move above it would signal deteriorating liquidity conditions with negative implications for cyclical commodities.
9. Week Ahead
The provided economic calendar for the next seven days is empty (Data unavailable), so no scheduled data releases, central bank meetings, or OPEC+ events can be confirmed from the dataset. Market participants should monitor the following categories of potential catalysts, subject to confirmation from official sources:
- Energy inventories. The next EIA weekly petroleum status report will follow the 2025-02-28 data showing a 3,614 thousand-barrel crude build, a 1,433 thousand-barrel gasoline draw, and a 1,318 thousand-barrel distillate draw, with refinery utilization at 85.90%.
- CFTC positioning updates. The next Commitments of Traders report will update the 2025-03-04 positions, with particular focus on whether the crude oil net length increase of 29,876 contracts is sustained or reversed, and whether gold's 13,154-contract reduction continues.
- Macro data. The next readings for CPI (currently 319.7850), core PCE (currently 125.2670), nonfarm payrolls (currently 158,377 thousand), and the unemployment rate (currently 4.2000%) will be key inputs for the Fed policy path and, by extension, real yields and the dollar.
- Natural gas storage and weather. Given the 29.77% 20-day advance, storage data and weather forecasts will be the primary drivers of whether the rally extends or reverses.
10. Trading Desk Summary
- Natural gas (NG=F): Closed at $4.3500, +5.53%, at 85.5% of the 20-day range. Pivot $4.3190, R1 $4.5820, S1 $4.0870. Crowded long (CFTC net 108,350). Momentum strong but reversal risk elevated.
- Gold (GC=F): Closed at $2,909.6001, +0.67%, above pivot $2,907.8667. R1 $2,929.6333, S1 $2,887.8335. CFTC net length reduced by 13,154 to 166,658. Constructive trend, fading positioning.
- Silver (SI=F): Closed at $32.1080, +0.24%. Pivot $32.0560, R1 $32.3420, S1 $31.8220. Gold-silver ratio 90.62.
- Crude oil (CL=F): Closed at $68.2600, -0.16%, at 21.6% of the 20-day range. Pivot $67.8633, R1 $68.9566, S1 $67.1666. Downtrend intact; CFTC net length up 29,876 to 98,649.
- Copper (HG=F): Closed at $4.5275, -1.07%, just below pivot $4.5315. R1 $4.5630, S1 $4.4960. CFTC net length down 9,755 to 8,902.
- Soybeans (ZS=F): Closed at $984.0000, -1.43%, at 5.9% of the 20-day range. Persistent downtrend.
Disclaimer: This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.