1. Executive Summary
Copper was the dominant mover in the 2025-03-05 session, with HG=F settling at $4.7665/lb, a gain of 5.28% on the day, extending its 5-day advance to 4.94% and its 20-day gain to 9.76%. The move placed copper at the 94.20% position of its 20-day range (20H: 4.7900, 20L: 4.3860), the most extended reading among the major contracts covered in this report. Silver followed with a 2.34% gain to $32.858/oz, while natural gas rose 2.30% to $4.45/MMBtu and gold added 0.20% to $2,915.30/oz.
In energy, crude oil continued to weaken. WTI (CL=F) settled at $66.31/bbl, down 2.86% on the day, down 3.37% over five days and down 8.79% over twenty days, sitting at just the 12.90% position of its 20-day range (20H: 73.6800, 20L: 65.2200). Brent (BZ=F) settled at $69.30/bbl, down 2.45%. The energy complex was uniformly soft, with heating oil (HO=F) down 2.03% and RBOB gasoline (RB=F) down 2.61%.
The macro driver remains a restrictive Federal Reserve stance. According to the latest macro data, the Fed funds effective rate stands at 4.33% (2025-03-01), the 10-year TIPS real yield is 1.94% (2025-03-05), and the Fed's total balance sheet is $6,756,764 million (2025-03-05), with overnight reverse repo at $139.493 billion. The 10-year to 2-year Treasury spread is +0.29% (2025-03-05), and the high-yield credit spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) is 2.88%. The DXY index at 105.74 and VIX at 21.93 complete a picture of a firm dollar and elevated volatility.
CFTC positioning data as of 2025-03-04 shows crude oil net longs at 98,649 contracts, up 29,876 week-over-week, the largest weekly build among the tracked contracts. Gold net longs fell 13,154 to 166,658, and copper net longs fell 9,755 to 8,902. The primary risk factor for today is the widening divergence between industrial metals, which are pressing multi-week highs, and energy, which is testing multi-week lows, against a backdrop of a strong dollar and a still-inverted real-rate structure.
2. Overnight Market Recap
Gold (GC=F) settled at $2,915.30/oz on 2025-03-05, up 0.20% on the day. The session opened at $2,916.70, traded a high of $2,922.00 and a low of $2,893.00. Over the trailing five days gold is essentially flat at -0.05%, while the 20-day change is +2.17%. The 20-day high stands at $2,957.8999 and the 20-day low at $2,834.1001, placing the close at the 65.60% position of the 20-day range. The ATR is 40.8142. Volume and open interest for the session are not available in the provided data.
Silver (SI=F) was the strongest precious metal performer, settling at $32.858/oz, up 2.34%. The contract opened at $32.17, traded a high of $33.00 and a low of $32.17, closing at the session high. The 5-day change is +1.88% and the 20-day change is -0.09%. The 20-day high is $34.0800 and the 20-day low is $31.0850, placing the close at the 59.20% position of the range. The ATR is 0.6734. The gold-silver ratio stands at 88.72 according to the cross-asset data.
Crude Oil (CL=F) settled at $66.31/bbl, down 2.86%, the weakest major contract on the day. The session opened at $68.08, traded a high of $68.10 and a low of $65.22, closing near the session low. The 5-day change is -3.37% and the 20-day change is -8.79%. The 20-day high is $73.6800 and the 20-day low is $65.2200, placing the close at just the 12.90% position of the range. The ATR is 1.8200. Brent (BZ=F) settled at $69.30/bbl, down 2.45%, with a 20-day change of -9.06% and a range position of 10.80%.
Natural Gas (NG=F) settled at $4.45/MMBtu, up 2.30%, continuing a powerful advance. The contract opened at $4.317, traded a high of $4.518 and a low of $4.227. The 5-day change is +13.93% and the 20-day change is +36.80%. The 20-day high is $4.5510 and the 20-day low is $3.1610, placing the close at the 92.70% position of the range. The ATR is 0.3226.
Copper (HG=F) settled at $4.7665/lb, up 5.28%, the largest single-day percentage gain in the dataset. The session opened at $4.535, traded a high of $4.79 and a low of $4.535. The 5-day change is +4.94% and the 20-day change is +9.76%. The 20-day high is $4.7900 and the 20-day low is $4.3860, placing the close at the 94.20% position of the range. The ATR is 0.0920.
Soybeans (ZS=F) settled at $997.75/bu, up 1.40%. The contract opened at $991, traded a high of $998.75 and a low of $983.25. The 5-day change is -2.61% and the 20-day change is -7.19%. The 20-day high is $1,079.75 and the 20-day low is $978.00, placing the close at the 19.40% position of the range. The ATR is 15.7500. The broader grain complex was firmer, with wheat (ZW=F) up 2.36% to $530.75 and corn (ZC=F) up 0.97% to $440.25.
3. Macro Landscape
The macro backdrop on 2025-03-05 remains defined by a restrictive Federal Reserve and a firm US dollar. According to the latest macro data, the Fed funds effective rate is 4.33% (2025-03-01), unchanged in the most recent reading. The 10-year TIPS real yield stands at 1.94% (2025-03-05), a level that historically has acted as a headwind for non-yielding assets such as gold. The DXY index is 105.74 (2025-03-05), and the US 10-year nominal yield is 4.28% (2025-03-05).
The yield curve remains positively sloped, with the 10-year to 2-year spread at +0.29% (2025-03-05), a configuration consistent with a soft-landing or late-cycle normalization rather than an imminent recession signal. The high-yield credit spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) is 2.88% (2025-03-05), a relatively contained reading that suggests credit markets are not pricing acute stress.
On the inflation side, the US CPI index (CPIAUCSL) stands at 319.7850 (2025-03-01) and the core PCE price index (PCEPILFE) at 125.2670 (2025-03-01). The labor market shows total nonfarm payrolls of 158,377 thousand (2025-03-01) and an unemployment rate of 4.20% (2025-03-01).
Liquidity conditions remain tight. The Fed's total balance sheet is $6,756,764 million (2025-03-05), reflecting the ongoing quantitative tightening program, while the overnight reverse repo facility stands at $139.493 billion (2025-03-05).
Risk sentiment is cautious. The VIX index is 21.93 (2025-03-05), a reading above the 20 level that typically signals elevated uncertainty. Equity futures were not provided with percentage changes in the dataset; ES=F is quoted at 5,851.25 and NQ=F at 20,665.00, but daily changes are unavailable. The combination of a firm dollar, positive real yields, and an elevated VIX creates a challenging environment for broad commodity beta, even as specific contracts such as copper and natural gas post strong gains.
4. Fund Positioning - CFTC
According to CFTC Commitments of Traders data for the report date 2025-03-04, positioning across the major commodity markets was mixed, with notable divergence between energy and metals.
Crude Oil: Net long positioning stood at 98,649 contracts, comprising 171,447 longs against 72,798 shorts, on total open interest of 1,816,244 contracts. The weekly change was +29,876 contracts, the largest build among the tracked markets. This substantial addition of length occurred even as WTI fell 2.86% on 2025-03-05, suggesting that managed money added into weakness during the reporting window.
Gold: Net long positioning was 166,658 contracts, with 204,965 longs and 38,307 shorts, on open interest of 489,270. The weekly change was -13,154 contracts, a meaningful reduction in length. Gold's net long remains the largest absolute positioning among the tracked contracts, but the direction of travel is toward de-risking.
Natural Gas: Net long positioning was 108,350 contracts, with 248,129 longs and 139,779 shorts, on open interest of 1,631,662. The weekly change was +1,530 contracts, a modest addition. The long side is notably large relative to the short side, consistent with the strong 20-day price performance of +36.80%.
Silver: Net long positioning was 34,098 contracts, with 47,878 longs and 13,780 shorts, on open interest of 145,935. The weekly change was +1,159 contracts, a small build.
Copper: Net long positioning was 8,902 contracts, with 64,740 longs and 55,838 shorts, on open interest of 218,780. The weekly change was -9,755 contracts, a sharp reduction. Notably, copper's net long is the smallest among the tracked markets in absolute terms, and the weekly decline occurred just before the 5.28% price surge on 2025-03-05, implying that the rally was not driven by a pre-existing crowded long position.
From a contrarian perspective, the large and still-growing crude oil net long (98,649) against a falling price is a potential warning sign of crowded positioning. Conversely, the reduced copper net long (8,902) combined with the sharp price rally suggests positioning is not yet extended, which may leave room for further upside if the move is sustained.
5. Today's Focus
The economic calendar for the next seven days is not available in the provided data (listed as N/A), so today's focus is derived from the price action and positioning data.
First, the copper market is the key focus. The 5.28% single-day gain to $4.7665/lb, closing at the 94.20% position of the 20-day range, is the most significant move in the dataset. Market participants will be watching whether the move is sustained or fades, particularly given that CFTC net longs fell 9,755 contracts in the week to 2025-03-04, indicating the rally was not driven by established speculative length.
Second, the energy complex remains under pressure. WTI at $66.31/bbl, down 2.86% and at the 12.90% position of its 20-day range, is approaching the 20-day low of $65.2200. The EIA weekly data for the week ending 2025-02-28 showed crude inventory at 433,775 thousand barrels, a weekly build of 3,614 thousand barrels, with refinery utilization at 85.90%. Gasoline inventory fell 1,433 thousand barrels to 246,838 thousand barrels, and distillate inventory fell 1,318 thousand barrels to 119,154 thousand barrels. The crude build is a bearish input for prices.
Third, natural gas strength warrants attention. At $4.45/MMBtu, up 2.30% and at the 92.70% position of its 20-day range, the contract has risen 36.80% over 20 days. CFTC net longs rose only 1,530 contracts to 108,350, suggesting the move has not been accompanied by aggressive new speculative length.
6. Technical Outlook
Gold (GC=F): The contract settled at $2,915.30, above the pivot of $2,910.10. Resistance R1 is $2,927.20 and support S1 is $2,898.20. The ATR is 40.8142. The close is at the 65.60% position of the 20-day range (20H: $2,957.8999, 20L: $2,834.1001), indicating a mild upward bias within a broad range. The 20-day change is +2.17%, while the 5-day change is -0.05%, suggesting consolidation. Trend: range-bound with a slight upward tilt. A sustained break above R1 at $2,927.20 could open the path toward the 20-day high of $2,957.90, while a loss of S1 at $2,898.20 would bring the $2,834.10 area into view. Given the flat 5-day performance and the elevated real yield of 1.94%, a buy-dips approach toward S1 may be considered, though the strong dollar is a headwind.
Crude Oil (CL=F): The contract settled at $66.31, below the pivot of $66.5433. Resistance R1 is $67.8666 and support S1 is $64.9866. The ATR is 1.8200. The close is at the 12.90% position of the 20-day range (20H: $73.6800, 20L: $65.2200), a clearly bearish configuration. The 5-day change is -3.37% and the 20-day change is -8.79%. Trend: downtrend. The close is below the 20-day low of $65.2200 on an intraday basis (session low $65.22), and a sustained break below S1 at $64.9866 could accelerate losses. Conversely, the large CFTC net long of 98,649 contracts, up 29,876 week-over-week, raises the risk of a short-covering bounce. A sell-rallies posture toward R1 at $67.8666 may be appropriate, with tight risk controls given the crowded long positioning.
Copper (HG=F): The contract settled at $4.7665, well above the pivot of $4.6972. Resistance R1 is $4.8594 and support S1 is $4.6044. The ATR is 0.0920. The close is at the 94.20% position of the 20-day range (20H: $4.7900, 20L: $4.3860), an extremely extended reading. The 5-day change is +4.94% and the 20-day change is +9.76%. Trend: strong uptrend. The close is just below the 20-day high of $4.7900. Given the extended range position and the fact that CFTC net longs fell 9,755 contracts in the prior week, the rally may be vulnerable to profit-taking. A buy-dips approach toward the pivot at $4.6972 or S1 at $4.6044 may offer better risk-reward than chasing at current levels, with R1 at $4.8594 as the immediate upside target.
7. Cross-Asset Monitor
The cross-asset data for 2025-03-05 provides several key ratios. The gold-silver ratio is 88.72, a level that reflects silver's relative underperformance versus gold over the longer term despite silver's 2.34% gain on the day. The copper-gold ratio is 0.001635, and the oil-gold ratio is 0.0227, both reflecting the divergence between strong industrial metals and weak energy.
The crack spread (3-2-1) is $24.90, a reading that indicates refining margins remain positive even as crude prices fall. The DXY index at 105.74 and the US 10-year yield at 4.28% represent the primary macro cross-currents. A firm dollar typically pressures dollar-denominated commodities, yet copper and silver both posted strong gains, suggesting idiosyncratic supply-demand factors are outweighing the currency effect in those markets.
The energy complex shows internal divergence: WTI fell 2.86% and Brent fell 2.45%, while natural gas rose 2.30%. The WTI-Brent spread is not explicitly provided, but the differential between CL=F at $66.31 and BZ=F at $69.30 is approximately $2.99. Heating oil fell 2.03% and RBOB gasoline fell 2.61%, confirming broad weakness in refined products.
The base metals basket is led by copper's 5.28% gain. Aluminum (ALI=F) rose 1.33% to $2,610.00, and zinc (ZNC=F) was unchanged at $2,297.00. The VIX at 21.93 suggests elevated equity market volatility, which historically correlates with risk-off flows that can benefit gold but weigh on industrial metals; the fact that copper rallied despite this is notable.
8. Risk Factors
1. Crowded crude oil positioning: CFTC net longs rose 29,876 contracts to 98,649 in the week to 2025-03-04, even as WTI fell 2.86% on 2025-03-05. A continued price decline could trigger a disorderly unwind of this length.
2. Extended copper rally: Copper closed at the 94.20% position of its 20-day range after a 5.28% single-day gain. A mean-reversion move toward the pivot at $4.6972 or S1 at $4.6044 is a material risk.
3. Strong dollar and positive real yields: The DXY at 105.74 and the 10-year TIPS real yield at 1.94% create a persistent headwind for gold and broad commodity beta.
4. Elevated volatility: The VIX at 21.93 signals risk aversion that could spill over into commodity markets, particularly if equity markets weaken.
5. Crude inventory build: EIA data for the week ending 2025-02-28 showed a crude inventory build of 3,614 thousand barrels to 433,775 thousand barrels, a bearish fundamental input for oil prices.
9. Week Ahead
The economic calendar for the next seven days is not available in the provided data (listed as N/A). Market participants will therefore focus on the following scheduled and recurring events.
In energy, the next EIA weekly petroleum status report will be closely watched following the 3,614 thousand barrel crude build reported for the week ending 2025-02-28. Refinery utilization at 85.90% and the drawdowns in gasoline (-1,433 thousand barrels) and distillate (-1,318 thousand barrels) will be key inputs.
In agriculture, the USDA will continue to publish export sales and crop progress data. Soybeans at $997.75, near the 20-day low of $978.00, remain sensitive to South American harvest conditions and Chinese demand.
On the macro front, the next CPI and PCE releases will be monitored against the current readings of 319.7850 and 125.2670 respectively. The Fed funds effective rate at 4.33% and the 10-year to 2-year spread at +0.29% will frame rate expectations.
No OPEC+ meeting or central bank policy decision is indicated in the provided data for the coming week. CFTC positioning data for the next report date will be released on the usual Friday schedule.
10. Trading Desk Summary
- Copper: Strong uptrend, but extended at the 94.20% range position. Consider buying dips toward the pivot at $4.6972; R1 at $4.8594 is the immediate target.
- Crude Oil: Downtrend intact, close at the 12.90% range position. Sell rallies toward R1 at $67.8666; watch S1 at $64.9866 for a breakdown. Crowded net long (98,649) is a two-way risk.
- Gold: Range-bound, close above pivot at $2,910.10. Buy dips toward S1 at $2,898.20; R1 at $2,927.20 caps the upside.
- Silver: Strong session (+2.34%), close at the 59.20% range position. Gold-silver ratio at 88.72.
- Natural Gas: Powerful uptrend (+36.80% over 20 days), close at the 92.70% range position. Extended; R1 at $4.5696.
- Soybeans: Bounce of +1.40% from near the 20-day low; range position 19.40%.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.