1. Executive Summary
Gold (GC=F) settled at $2,984.30 on 2025-03-13, up 1.54% on the day and 2.32% over five sessions, printing an intraday high of $2,988.00 — a fresh 20-day high and a close in the 97.6th percentile of its trailing 20-day range. Silver (SI=F) advanced 1.69% to $34.0510, its own 20-day high, with a 5-day gain of 2.99%. Copper (HG=F) rose 1.61% to $4.8985, also a 20-day high and the 99.1st percentile of its range, extending a 5-day gain of 2.50% and a 20-day gain of 4.27%. The industrial-precious metals complex thus closed in near-unison at the top of recent ranges, a configuration that typically reflects either broad dollar weakness or a genuine re-rating of hard-asset demand.
The energy complex moved the other way. WTI crude (CL=F) fell 1.67% to $66.55, sitting in only the 16.6th percentile of its 20-day range, with Brent (BZ=F) down 1.51% to $69.88. Natural gas (NG=F) eked out a 0.66% gain to $4.1110 after Wednesday's 8.29% single-session collapse, but remains 4.44% lower over five sessions. Soybeans (ZS=F) rose 0.94% to $996.75, a modest bounce within a 20-day decline of 3.02%.
The macro driver remains the rate structure. According to the latest available data, the effective fed funds rate stands at 4.33%, the 10-year TIPS real yield at 1.98%, and the 10s/2s curve at +0.33 percentage points — a positively sloped but modest curve consistent with a soft-landing base case. The high-yield credit spread at 3.40% (BAMLH0A0HYM2) indicates no acute liquidity stress, while the VIX at 24.66 points to elevated equity-market volatility. The dollar index (DX-Y.NYB) at 103.83 has not broken down decisively, which makes the metals rally notable.
CFTC positioning as of 2025-03-11 showed managed-money net length of 167,576 contracts in gold (+918 w/w), 107,744 in crude (+9,095), 91,617 in natural gas (−16,733), 41,977 in silver (+7,879), and 14,216 in copper (+5,314). The primary risk factor for today is the tension between record-percentile metals positioning and a crude complex that continues to make lower highs — a divergence that historically resolves through either a broad commodity reflation or a metals-specific correction.
2. Overnight Market Recap
Gold (GC=F). Gold closed at $2,984.30, up $45.20 or 1.54% on the session, having opened at $2,937.10 and traded a range of $2,935.20–$2,988.00. The close was within $3.70 of the intraday high, indicating strong late-session bid. Volume and open interest for the front-month contract are reported as Data unavailable in the current dataset. The move extends a sequence of higher closes since the 2025-02-28 low of $2,836.80, with the metal gaining in seven of the last ten sessions. The 20-day high of $2,988.00 was set today, and the 20-day low of $2,834.10 was set on 2025-02-28, placing the close at the 97.6th percentile of that range. The 5-day change is +2.32% and the 20-day change is +2.59%.
Silver (SI=F). Silver closed at $34.0510, up $0.567 or 1.69%, after opening at $33.385 and trading $33.350–$34.405. The 20-day high of $34.405 was set intraday today, and the 20-day low of $31.085 dates to 2025-02-28. The close sits in the 89.3rd percentile of the 20-day range. Silver has now gained 2.99% over five sessions and 4.15% over twenty, outperforming gold on both horizons — a classic late-cycle precious-metals signature. The gold/silver ratio stands at 87.64, down from recent highs, consistent with silver's relative strength.
Crude Oil (CL=F). WTI closed at $66.55, down $1.13 or 1.67%, after opening at $67.69 and trading $66.37–$67.94. The close is in the 16.6th percentile of the 20-day range ($65.22–$73.25). The 5-day change is +0.29% but the 20-day change is −6.75%, underscoring the persistent downtrend. Brent (BZ=F) closed at $69.88, down 1.51%, with a 20-day change of −7.05% and a close in the 17.5th percentile of its range. The WTI-Brent spread is approximately $3.33 in favor of Brent. The crack spread (3-2-1) stands at $23.45, and heating oil (HO=F) fell 2.00% to $2.1622, sitting in just the 2.5th percentile of its 20-day range — the weakest reading across the energy complex.
Natural Gas (NG=F). Natural gas closed at $4.1110, up 0.66%, after opening at $4.032 and trading $3.955–$4.195. The rebound follows Wednesday's 8.29% decline, the largest single-session drop in the dataset. The 20-day high of $4.901 was set on 2025-03-10 and the 20-day low of $3.554 on 2025-02-18. The close is in the 41.4th percentile of the 20-day range. The 5-day change is −4.44% while the 20-day change remains +15.32%, reflecting the violent two-way volatility of the past month.
Copper (HG=F). Copper closed at $4.8985, up $0.0775 or 1.61%, after opening at $4.8145 and trading $4.7755–$4.9025. The close is a fresh 20-day high and the 99.1st percentile of the 20-day range ($4.4795–$4.9025). The 5-day change is +2.50% and the 20-day change is +4.27%. The copper/gold ratio stands at 0.001641.
Soybeans (ZS=F). Soybeans closed at $996.75, up $9.25 or 0.94%, after opening at $999.25 and trading a narrow $996.75–$999.25. The close is in the 26.3rd percentile of the 20-day range ($978.00–$1,049.25). The 5-day change is −1.70% and the 20-day change is −3.02%. Soybean meal (ZM=F) rose 2.70% to $300.30, while soybean oil (ZL=F) fell 0.97% to $40.78, sitting at the 0.0th percentile of its 20-day range — the weakest print in the agricultural complex.
3. Macro Landscape
The macro configuration as of 2025-03-13 is defined by four observable pillars. First, the policy rate: the effective fed funds rate stands at 4.33% (FEDFUNDS, dated 2025-03-01), unchanged in the latest reading. Second, the real rate: the 10-year TIPS real yield is 1.98% (DFII10, 2025-03-13), a level that historically has been a headwind for gold — yet gold is trading at record-range highs, implying that the marginal buyer is responding to something other than the real-rate channel, most plausibly reserve diversification or inflation-hedge demand. Third, the nominal 10-year yield: the ^TNX proxy stands at 4.2740, with the cross-asset table listing US10Y at 4.2700. Fourth, the curve: the 10s/2s spread is +0.33 percentage points (T10Y2Y, 2025-03-13), positively sloped and consistent with a soft-landing or no-recession base case.
Inflation data show the unadjusted CPI index at 319.785 (CPIAUCSL, 2025-03-01) and core PCE at 125.267 (PCEPILFE, 2025-03-01). Labor-market data show nonfarm payrolls at 158,377 thousand (PAYEMS, 2025-03-01) and unemployment at 4.20% (UNRATE, 2025-03-01). The combination of 4.2% unemployment and 4.33% policy rate implies a real policy rate of roughly 13 basis points on a headline basis — a modestly restrictive stance.
Liquidity conditions appear adequate. The Fed's total balance sheet stands at $6,759,571 million (RESPPANWW, 2025-03-12), and the overnight reverse repo facility stands at $113.435 billion (RRPONTSYD, 2025-03-13). The high-yield credit spread at 3.40% (BAMLH0A0HYM2, 2025-03-13) is well contained and does not signal imminent liquidity stress.
Cross-asset risk sentiment is mixed. The VIX at 24.66 is elevated relative to the low-teen readings typical of calm markets, implying that equity-market participants are pricing meaningful near-term uncertainty. The dollar index at 103.83 has not weakened materially, which makes the simultaneous rally in gold, silver, and copper notable — a dollar-neutral or dollar-positive metals rally is typically a signal of genuine hard-asset demand rather than a pure FX translation effect. Equity futures (ES=F at 5,527.50; NQ=F at 19,249.00) are quoted without percentage changes in the dataset, so directional equity commentary is Data unavailable.
4. Fund Positioning - CFTC
According to CFTC Commitments of Traders data for the reporting date 2025-03-11, positioning across the five tracked contracts is as follows.
Gold. Managed-money long positions total 204,907 contracts against 37,331 short, for a net long of 167,576. The weekly change is +918 contracts, a marginal addition. Total open interest is 511,276. The net-long-to-open-interest ratio is approximately 32.8%, a moderately crowded but not extreme reading. The small weekly increment suggests that the rally into the 2025-03-13 high was not driven primarily by fresh speculative length — a constructive signal, as it implies less air beneath the market.
Silver. Longs total 54,740 against 12,763 shorts, for a net long of 41,977, up 7,879 contracts week-over-week — the largest proportional increase in the dataset. Open interest is 155,263, giving a net-long/OI ratio of approximately 27.0%. The aggressive weekly build in silver length, combined with the 1.69% price gain and the 89.3rd-percentile close, suggests momentum-chasing flows are entering the silver market.
Crude Oil. Longs total 171,354 against 63,610 shorts, for a net long of 107,744, up 9,095 contracts week-over-week. Open interest is 1,793,310, giving a net-long/OI ratio of approximately 6.0%. Despite the price decline — WTI is down 6.75% over 20 days — speculative length increased. This is a classic contrarian setup: managed money adding to longs into a falling market can precede either a capitulation or a sharp mean-reversion rally.
Natural Gas. Longs total 232,927 against 141,310 shorts, for a net long of 91,617, down 16,733 contracts week-over-week — the largest absolute weekly reduction in the dataset. Open interest is 1,645,622, giving a net-long/OI ratio of approximately 5.6%. The de-risking is consistent with the 8.29% single-day price collapse on 2025-03-12 and the 4.44% five-day decline.
Copper. Longs total 69,303 against 55,087 shorts, for a net long of 14,216, up 5,314 contracts week-over-week. Open interest is 227,359, giving a net-long/OI ratio of approximately 6.3%. The build in copper length aligns with the 4.27% 20-day price gain and the 99.1st-percentile close.
Contrarian read. The most crowded long positioning on a net/OI basis is gold (32.8%) and silver (27.0%). The least crowded is natural gas (5.6%) and crude (6.0%). The week's most aggressive additions were in silver (+7,879) and crude (+9,095); the most aggressive reduction was in natural gas (−16,733).
5. Today's Focus
The economic calendar for the next seven days is listed as N/A in the available dataset, so scheduled data releases are Data unavailable. The following are the observable focal points for the session.
First, the gold record-high test. Gold's intraday high of $2,988.00 on 2025-03-13 places the psychologically significant $3,000 level within roughly 0.5% of the close. A sustained break above $3,000 would be a technically significant event given the 97.6th-percentile range position and the modest CFTC weekly build. Conversely, failure at $3,000 would leave a potential double-top risk against the 2025-02-24 high of $2,957.90.
Second, the crude-oil inventory backdrop. According to EIA data for the week ending 2025-03-07, crude inventories rose by 1,448 thousand barrels to 435,223 thousand barrels, while gasoline inventories fell 5,737 thousand barrels to 241,101 thousand barrels and distillate inventories fell 1,559 thousand barrels to 117,595 thousand barrels. Refinery utilization stood at 86.50%. The crude build against product draws is consistent with the weak crude/strong product-crack configuration observed in the crack spread of $23.45.
Third, the natural-gas volatility regime. Following the 8.29% single-day decline on 2025-03-12 and the 0.66% rebound on 2025-03-13, the 20-day change remains +15.32%. The CFTC net-length reduction of 16,733 contracts suggests speculative capital is exiting. Weather-driven demand and storage trajectory are the key swing factors, though storage data are Data unavailable in the current dataset.
6. Technical Outlook
Gold (GC=F). Trend: uptrend. The close of $2,984.30 is above the pivot of $2,969.17, above the S1 of $2,950.33, and just below the R1 of $3,003.13. The 20-day range is $2,834.10–$2,988.00, and the close sits at the 97.6th percentile. The ATR is $36.94, implying a daily expected range of roughly 1.24% at current price. The 5-day change of +2.32% and 20-day change of +2.59% confirm a steady, orderly advance rather than a parabolic move. RSI and MACD values are Data unavailable in the dataset. Trading implication: the trend structure favors buying dips toward the pivot at $2,969 and the S1 at $2,950, with the R1 at $3,003 as the immediate resistance. A close below S1 would neutralize the near-term uptrend.
Crude Oil (CL=F). Trend: downtrend. The close of $66.55 is below the pivot of $66.95 and below the R1 of $67.54, but above the S1 of $65.97. The 20-day range is $65.22–$73.25, and the close sits at the 16.6th percentile — deep in the lower quartile. The ATR is $1.85, implying a daily expected range of roughly 2.78%. The 20-day change of −6.75% confirms the downtrend. The immediate support is the 20-day low at $65.22, with the S1 at $65.97 as the first line. Resistance is the pivot at $66.95 and the R1 at $67.54. Trading implication: the trend favors selling rallies toward the pivot and R1, with a break below $65.22 opening the next leg lower. The CFTC net-length build of 9,095 contracts against a falling price is a caution flag for aggressive shorts.
Copper (HG=F). Trend: uptrend. The close of $4.8985 is above the pivot of $4.8588, above the R1 of $4.9421 by a narrow margin intraday (high $4.9025), and well above the S1 of $4.8151. The 20-day range is $4.4795–$4.9025, and the close sits at the 99.1st percentile — essentially at the top of the range. The ATR is $0.1101, implying a daily expected range of roughly 2.25%. The 5-day change of +2.50% and 20-day change of +4.27% confirm the uptrend. Trading implication: the trend favors buying dips toward the pivot at $4.8588 and the S1 at $4.8151, but the 99.1st-percentile position argues for tight risk management and partial profit-taking into strength. A close below the pivot would be the first warning of exhaustion.
7. Cross-Asset Monitor
The gold/silver ratio stands at 87.64, down from the levels implied by the 2025-02-28 closes (gold $2,836.80 / silver $31.219 = 90.87), confirming silver's relative outperformance over the past two weeks. The copper/gold ratio is 0.001641, and the oil/gold ratio is 0.0223 — both reflecting the divergence between strong metals and weak energy.
The dollar index (DX-Y.NYB) at 103.83 is the key cross-asset variable. A stable-to-firm dollar alongside rising gold, silver, and copper implies that the metals bid is not a pure currency-debasement trade but reflects genuine hard-asset demand. The 10-year nominal yield at 4.2700 and the 10-year TIPS real yield at 1.98% together imply a breakeven inflation rate of approximately 2.29% — consistent with anchored but not complacent inflation expectations.
Within the energy complex, the WTI-Brent spread of approximately $3.33 and the 3-2-1 crack spread of $23.45 indicate a refining margin environment that is supportive of runs, consistent with the 86.50% refinery utilization reported by the EIA for the week ending 2025-03-07. The heating-oil crack is the weak link, with HO=F at the 2.5th percentile of its 20-day range.
The base-metals basket is led by copper at the 99.1st percentile, with aluminum (ALI=F) at $2,645.25, down 0.13% on the day and in the 63.2nd percentile of its 20-day range. Zinc (ZNC=F) is quoted at $2,297.00 with no change and no range data. The dispersion between copper (99.1st percentile) and aluminum (63.2nd) suggests the copper bid is idiosyncratic rather than a broad base-metals reflation.
The VIX at 24.66 remains the cross-asset wildcard. Elevated equity volatility alongside record-high gold and copper is an unusual combination that historically has resolved through either a broad risk-off that drags industrial metals lower or a volatility compression that validates the metals bid.
8. Risk Factors
1. Metals positioning risk. Gold at the 97.6th percentile, silver at the 89.3rd, and copper at the 99.1st percentile of their respective 20-day ranges, combined with CFTC net-long/OI ratios of 32.8% (gold) and 27.0% (silver), create vulnerability to a sharp long-liquidation event if a macro catalyst turns adverse.
2. Crude-oil divergence risk. WTI at the 16.6th percentile with managed-money net length rising 9,095 contracts week-over-week is a classic crowded-long-into-weakness setup. A break below the 20-day low of $65.22 could trigger stop-loss cascades.
3. Natural-gas volatility risk. The 8.29% single-session decline on 2025-03-12, followed by a 0.66% rebound, demonstrates an extreme volatility regime. The 16,733-contract reduction in net length shows speculators are already de-risking, which can amplify moves in either direction.
4. Real-rate risk. The 10-year TIPS real yield at 1.98% is historically inconsistent with gold at record-range highs. Any further rise in real yields could pressure the gold bid.
5. Liquidity and credit risk. The high-yield spread at 3.40% is contained, but the VIX at 24.66 and the Fed's balance sheet at $6,759,571 million during ongoing QT warrant monitoring for any deterioration in risk appetite.
9. Week Ahead
The scheduled economic calendar for the next five trading days is listed as N/A in the available dataset, so specific data releases are Data unavailable. Based on the observable cadence of the dataset, the following items warrant attention.
Energy inventory data: the next EIA weekly petroleum status report will follow the 2025-03-07 reference week, which showed a 1,448 thousand-barrel crude build, a 5,737 thousand-barrel gasoline draw, and a 1,559 thousand-barrel distillate draw at 86.50% refinery utilization. The trajectory of these inventories will be the primary driver for the crude and refined-product complex.
CFTC positioning: the next Commitments of Traders report, covering the week ending 2025-03-18, will be the first read on whether the silver (+7,879) and crude (+9,095) length additions were sustained or reversed, and whether the natural-gas reduction (−16,733) continued.
Central-bank policy: the effective fed funds rate at 4.33% and the 10s/2s curve at +0.33 percentage points imply a market pricing a stable policy stance. Any communication from Fed officials will be parsed against the 1.98% real-yield backdrop.
Metals technical levels: gold's $3,000 round number, copper's 20-day high at $4.9025, and silver's 20-day high at $34.405 are the key levels to monitor for breakout or rejection.
10. Trading Desk Summary
- Gold: Uptrend intact; close at $2,984.30, 97.6th percentile of 20-day range. Watch $3,000 resistance and $2,950 S1 support. CFTC net length +918 w/w is modest — constructive.
- Silver: Outperforming gold; close at $34.0510, 89.3rd percentile. CFTC net length +7,879 w/w is the largest proportional build — monitor for crowding.
- Copper: Strongest range position at 99.1st percentile, close $4.8985. Trend favors dips toward $4.8588 pivot, but tight risk management warranted at range highs.
- Crude Oil: Downtrend, close $66.55 at 16.6th percentile. CFTC net length +9,095 into weakness is a contrarian caution. Support $65.22; resistance $66.95 pivot.
- Natural Gas: Volatile; close $4.1110 after Wednesday's 8.29% drop. CFTC net length −16,733 w/w. 20-day change still +15.32%.
- Soybeans: Modest bounce, close $996.75, 26.3rd percentile. Soybean meal +2.70% and soybean oil −0.97% show wide product dispersion.
- Macro: Fed funds 4.33%, 10-year TIPS real yield 1.98%, 10s/2s +0.33pp, HY spread 3.40%, VIX 24.66, DXY 103.83.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.