1. Executive Summary
Natural gas was the dominant mover in the 2025-04-29 session, with the front-month contract settling at $3.3860/MMBtu, up 6.81% on the day and 12.60% over the trailing five sessions. This follows a 7.93% advance on 2025-04-28, when the contract closed at $3.1700, and marks a sharp reversal from the 20-day decline of 17.80% recorded through the period. Crude oil moved in the opposite direction: WTI settled at $60.4200/bbl, down 2.63% on the day and 6.05% over five days, while Brent closed at $64.2500/bbl, down 2.44%. The WTI-Brent spread implied by these settlements is approximately $3.83/bbl.
Precious metals were mixed. Gold settled at $3,318.80/oz, down 0.41% on the day and 2.41% over five sessions, though still up 6.28% over 20 days. Silver gained 0.86% to $33.2750/oz, outperforming gold and lifting the gold/silver ratio to 99.74. Copper slipped 0.31% to $4.8230/lb, down 0.98% over five days and 3.92% over 20 days. Soybeans declined 1.05% to 1,041.00 cents/bushel, while corn fell 3.15% to 460.50 cents/bushel and wheat dropped 1.89% to 505.75 cents/bushel.
The macro driver remains the restrictive policy stance. According to the Federal Reserve data, the effective fed funds rate is 4.33%, the 10-year TIPS real yield is 1.96%, and the 10-year nominal yield is 4.19%. The 10-year/2-year spread of 0.54% indicates a positively sloped curve. The dollar index at 99.24 and VIX at 24.17 point to a cautious risk environment.
The primary risk factor for today is the positioning divergence in natural gas. CFTC data shows managed-money net shorts in natural gas deepened by 19,089 contracts to -44,712 for the week ended 2025-04-29, even as the contract rallied 12.60% over five sessions. This creates conditions for a short-covering squeeze. Conversely, crude oil net length rose 8,296 contracts to 140,031 despite a 6.05% five-day decline, suggesting longs are adding into weakness — a potentially vulnerable configuration.
2. Overnight Market Recap
Gold (GC=F) settled at $3,318.80/oz on 2025-04-29, down $13.70 or 0.41% from the prior close of $3,332.50. The session opened at $3,340.00, reached a high of $3,340.00, and printed a low of $3,299.90 before recovering into the close. The 20-day range spans $2,949.70 to $3,485.60, placing the settlement at the 68.90% channel position. The 20-day change stands at +6.28%, while the five-day change is -2.41%. The average true range (ATR) is $83.7143. Volume and open interest data are unavailable for the session.
Silver (SI=F) closed at $33.2750/oz, up $0.2850 or 0.86% from the prior settlement of $32.9900. The contract traded between $32.8200 and $33.5150, opening at $33.0950. The 20-day range is $28.3100 to $34.8550, with the close at the 75.90% channel position. Five-day performance is +1.20%, while the 20-day change is -3.43%. ATR is $0.5579. The gold/silver ratio based on these settlements is 99.74.
Crude Oil (CL=F) settled at $60.4200/bbl, down $1.63 or 2.63% from the prior close of $62.0500. The session opened at $61.8700, reached a high of $62.0700, and printed a low of $60.1200. The 20-day range is $55.1200 to $72.2800, placing the close at the 30.90% channel position. Five-day performance is -6.05% and 20-day performance is -15.47%. ATR is $2.7093. Brent (BZ=F) settled at $64.2500/bbl, down 2.44% on the day, -4.73% over five days, and -14.04% over 20 days, with an ATR of $2.6036 and a 20-day channel position of 34.30%.
Natural Gas (NG=F) settled at $3.3860/MMBtu, up $0.2160 or 6.81% from the prior close of $3.1700. The contract opened at $3.3200, traded to a high of $3.4570 and a low of $3.3070. The 20-day range is $2.8580 to $4.2030, with the close at the 39.30% channel position. Five-day performance is +12.60%, while the 20-day change is -17.80%. ATR is $0.2249.
Copper (HG=F) settled at $4.8230/lb, down $0.0150 or 0.31% from the prior close of $4.8380. The session range was $4.7960 to $4.9145, with an open at $4.8465. The 20-day range is $4.0985 to $5.0665, placing the close at the 74.80% channel position. Five-day performance is -0.98% and 20-day performance is -3.92%. ATR is $0.1183.
Soybeans (ZS=F) settled at 1,041.00 cents/bushel, down 11.00 cents or 1.05% from the prior close of 1,052.00. The session range was 1,034.75 to 1,052.75, with an open at 1,051.50. The 20-day range is 969.50 to 1,058.00, placing the close at the 80.80% channel position. Five-day performance is +0.58% and 20-day performance is +2.59%. ATR is 15.6071.
In the broader agricultural complex, corn (ZC=F) fell 3.15% to 460.50 cents/bushel and wheat (ZW=F) dropped 1.89% to 505.75 cents/bushel, with wheat at just the 1.40% channel position of its 20-day range. Among softs, coffee (KC=F) declined 2.11% to 412.65 cents/lb, cocoa (CC=F) fell 0.77% to $9,146/tonne, and sugar (SB=F) lost 1.23% to 17.62 cents/lb. Livestock was firmer, with live cattle (LE=F) up 0.32% at 216.35 cents/lb and lean hogs (HE=F) down 0.43% at 92.55 cents/lb.
3. Macro Landscape
The macro configuration on 2025-04-29 remains restrictive for commodity prices. According to Federal Reserve data, the effective fed funds rate stands at 4.33%, unchanged from the 2025-04-01 reading. The 10-year TIPS real yield is 1.96%, a level that historically correlates with headwinds for gold and other non-yielding assets. The 10-year nominal Treasury yield is 4.19%, while the 10-year/2-year spread is 0.54%, indicating a positively sloped curve that has moved away from inversion territory but remains modest by historical standards.
The dollar index (DX-Y.NYB) is at 99.2400. A dollar at this level exerts moderate pressure on dollar-denominated commodities, though the relationship is not uniform across the complex. The VIX index at 24.17 suggests elevated equity market volatility, which typically supports safe-haven demand for gold but can weigh on industrial metals and energy through demand-destruction channels.
Inflation data shows the US CPI index (CPIAUCSL) at 320.3020 as of 2025-04-01, while the core PCE price index (PCEPILFE) stands at 125.5020. The high-yield credit spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) at 3.74% remains contained, suggesting no imminent liquidity crisis. The Fed's total balance sheet (RESPPANWW) was $6,726,930 million as of 2025-04-23, reflecting the ongoing quantitative tightening program. The overnight reverse repo facility (RRPONTSYD) stands at $157.537 billion as of 2025-04-29, a level that indicates ample liquidity in the financial system.
Labor market data shows non-farm payrolls (PAYEMS) at 158,485 thousand as of 2025-04-01, with the unemployment rate (UNRATE) at 4.20%. This combination of solid employment and above-target inflation supports the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain its restrictive stance, which is a headwind for commodity prices broadly, though the impact varies by sector.
The energy complex is showing significant divergence. While crude oil has fallen 15.47% over 20 days, natural gas has rallied 12.60% over five days. This decoupling reflects idiosyncratic supply-demand factors in each market rather than a unified macro signal. The crack spread (321) at $27.26 suggests refining margins remain positive, which could support crude demand from refiners.
4. Fund Positioning - CFTC
According to CFTC Commitments of Traders data for the week ended 2025-04-29, positioning across the commodity complex reveals several notable shifts.
Gold: Managed-money net length stands at 105,895 contracts, comprising 150,715 long and 44,820 short positions against total open interest of 451,868. The weekly change shows a reduction of 15,007 contracts, the largest weekly decline among the major contracts covered. This reduction in net length occurred alongside a 2.41% five-day price decline, suggesting profit-taking or long liquidation rather than new short establishment. The net length remains substantial in absolute terms, indicating that gold is not yet a contrarian buy from a positioning perspective.
Silver: Net length rose by 4,847 contracts to 30,738, with 42,324 longs against 11,586 shorts and open interest of 152,669. The long-to-short ratio of approximately 3.65:1 indicates a moderately crowded long position. The increase in net length coincided with a 1.20% five-day price gain, suggesting momentum-following flows.
Crude Oil: Net length increased by 8,296 contracts to 140,031, with 200,874 longs and 60,843 shorts against open interest of 1,896,516. The long-to-short ratio of approximately 3.30:1 is notable given the 6.05% five-day price decline. This divergence — rising net length into falling prices — suggests that speculative longs are adding to positions on weakness, a configuration that can amplify downside moves if the price decline continues.
Natural Gas: Net position is -44,712 contracts, comprising 139,505 longs and 184,217 shorts against open interest of 1,471,360. The weekly change shows net shorts deepened by 19,089 contracts. This is the most extreme positioning in the complex, with shorts exceeding longs by a significant margin. Given the 12.60% five-day price rally, this positioning is now underwater for recent short additions and creates potential for a short-covering squeeze.
Copper: Net length rose by 2,771 contracts to 18,926, with 50,998 longs and 32,072 shorts against open interest of 191,990. The long-to-short ratio of approximately 1.59:1 is the least crowded among the metals. The modest increase in net length alongside a 0.98% five-day price decline suggests cautious accumulation.
From a contrarian perspective, natural gas presents the most compelling setup given the extreme net short position and recent price strength. Crude oil's rising net length into declining prices is a cautionary signal. Gold's large but declining net length suggests the market is in a consolidation phase rather than a trend reversal.
5. Today's Focus
The economic calendar for 2025-04-29 is empty per the provided data, with no scheduled releases listed. Market participants will therefore focus on the following developments.
First, the EIA weekly petroleum status report for the week ending 2025-04-25 showed crude inventory at 440,408 thousand barrels, a weekly change of -2,696 thousand barrels. Gasoline inventory stands at 225,540 thousand barrels, down 4,003 thousand barrels week-over-week, while distillate inventory is 107,815 thousand barrels, up 937 thousand barrels. Refinery utilization is 88.60%. The crude and gasoline draws are supportive for refined products, though the crude oil price decline of 2.63% on 2025-04-29 suggests the market is focused on demand concerns rather than inventory levels.
Second, the natural gas rally will be closely watched for follow-through. The 6.81% gain on 2025-04-29 follows a 7.93% gain on 2025-04-28, representing a cumulative two-day advance of approximately 15.3%. The CFTC data showing net shorts at -44,712 contracts suggests that further short covering could extend the rally, though the 20-day change remains -17.80%, indicating the broader trend is still under pressure.
Third, the divergence between crude oil and natural gas bears monitoring. WTI at $60.4200 is near the lower end of its 20-day range ($55.1200-$72.2800), while natural gas at $3.3860 is in the middle of its range ($2.8580-$4.2030). The oil/gold ratio at 0.0182 and the copper/gold ratio at 0.001453 reflect the relative underperformance of cyclical commodities versus precious metals.
6. Technical Outlook
Gold (GC=F): The contract settled at $3,318.80, below the pivot of $3,319.5666. The trend over the 20-day period remains positive (+6.28%), but the five-day change is negative (-2.41%), indicating a short-term pullback within a longer-term uptrend. The ATR of $83.7143 is elevated, reflecting high volatility. Immediate support is at S1 of $3,299.1332, with resistance at R1 of $3,339.2333. The 20-day high of $3,485.60 and low of $2,949.70 frame the broader range. The channel position of 68.90% suggests the contract is in the upper half of its range but not overbought. A break below S1 could target the $3,250-$3,280 area, while a move above R1 would open the path toward $3,400. Given the large net long position (105,895 contracts) and the recent reduction, the market may be vulnerable to further long liquidation. Trading recommendation: avoid chasing; consider buying dips toward S1 with tight stops.
Crude Oil (CL=F): The contract settled at $60.4200, below the pivot of $60.8700 and near the lower end of its 20-day range. The trend is clearly negative, with a 20-day change of -15.47% and a five-day change of -6.05%. The ATR of $2.7093 indicates significant daily volatility. Immediate support is at S1 of $59.6700, with resistance at R1 of $61.6200. The 20-day low of $55.1200 is the next major support level. The channel position of 30.90% indicates the contract is in the lower third of its range. The rising net long position (140,031 contracts, +8,296 w/w) into falling prices is a bearish divergence that could accelerate downside if stops are triggered. Trading recommendation: sell rallies toward R1, with a target of S1 and then the 20-day low.
Copper (HG=F): The contract settled at $4.8230, below the pivot of $4.8445. The trend is mildly negative, with a 20-day change of -3.92% and a five-day change of -0.98%. The ATR of $0.1183 is relatively low, indicating subdued volatility. Immediate support is at S1 of $4.7745, with resistance at R1 of $4.8930. The 20-day range is $4.0985 to $5.0665, with the close at the 74.80% channel position. The net long position of 18,926 contracts is modest and not crowded. Trading recommendation: range-trading approach; buy near S1, sell near R1.
7. Cross-Asset Monitor
The gold/silver ratio stands at 99.74, a level that historically has preceded mean reversion, though the timing is uncertain. The copper/gold ratio is 0.001453, reflecting the underperformance of industrial metals versus precious metals, which is consistent with a risk-off macro environment. The oil/gold ratio is 0.0182, near multi-year lows, indicating that energy is cheap relative to gold.
The crack spread (321) at $27.26 suggests refining margins remain positive, which could provide a floor for crude oil demand from refiners. However, the product inventories show gasoline down 4,003 thousand barrels and distillate up 937 thousand barrels, suggesting uneven demand across the barrel.
The dollar index at 99.2400 and the 10-year yield at 4.1900 are the key cross-asset drivers. A stronger dollar and higher real yields (10-year TIPS at 1.96%) are headwinds for gold and commodities broadly. The VIX at 24.17 indicates elevated equity volatility, which typically supports gold but weighs on cyclical commodities.
The energy complex spread between WTI ($60.4200) and Brent ($64.2500) is approximately $3.83/bbl, reflecting the typical quality differential. Natural gas at $3.3860 is decoupling from crude oil, driven by idiosyncratic factors.
8. Risk Factors
1. Natural gas short squeeze: CFTC data shows net shorts at -44,712 contracts, deepened by 19,089 in the latest week. The 12.60% five-day rally may force further short covering, potentially driving prices toward the 20-day high of $4.2030.
2. Crude oil long liquidation: Net length rose 8,296 contracts to 140,031 even as prices fell 6.05% over five days. If the decline continues, stop-loss triggers could accelerate selling.
3. Gold positioning unwind: Net length fell 15,007 contracts to 105,895. Further long liquidation could pressure prices below the S1 support of $3,299.1332.
4. Macro policy risk: The effective fed funds rate at 4.33% and real yields at 1.96% remain restrictive. Any hawkish shift in Fed communication could strengthen the dollar and weigh on commodities.
5. Credit market stress: The high-yield spread at 3.74% is contained, but any widening could signal broader risk aversion, pressuring cyclical commodities.
9. Week Ahead
The economic calendar for the next five trading days is unavailable per the provided data. Market participants will monitor the following potential catalysts.
In energy, the EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released, providing updated inventory data for crude, gasoline, and distillates. The prior week showed crude down 2,696 thousand barrels and gasoline down 4,003 thousand barrels. Natural gas storage data will also be watched following the sharp rally.
In agriculture, the USDA weekly export sales report and crop progress updates will be monitored for demand signals. Soybeans at 1,041.00 cents/bushel are near the upper end of their 20-day range (80.80% channel position), while wheat at 505.75 cents/bushel is at just the 1.40% channel position, suggesting extreme weakness.
On the macro front, no central bank meetings are scheduled per the provided data. However, Fed speakers may provide guidance on the policy path given the 4.33% effective rate and 4.20% unemployment rate. The 10-year/2-year spread at 0.54% will be watched for signals on growth expectations.
In metals, copper at $4.8230 and gold at $3,318.80 will be monitored for reactions to dollar moves and real yield changes. The gold/silver ratio at 99.74 may attract mean-reversion traders.
10. Trading Desk Summary
- Natural gas: Momentum is strongly positive (+6.81% on the day, +12.60% over five days) with net shorts at -44,712 contracts. Watch for continuation of short covering toward R1 of $3.4596 and potentially the 20-day high of $4.2030. Support at S1 of $3.3096.
- Crude oil: Bearish trend with rising net length creating vulnerability. Sell rallies toward R1 of $61.6200, target S1 of $59.6700 and then the 20-day low of $55.1200. ATR of $2.7093 suggests wide stops.
- Gold: Consolidating within an uptrend. Support at S1 of $3,299.1332, resistance at R1 of $3,339.2333. Large net long position (105,895) is a double-edged sword. Buy dips with tight stops.
- Silver: Outperforming gold with net length up 4,847 contracts to 30,738. Gold/silver ratio at 99.74 favors silver on a relative basis. Resistance at R1 of $33.5866, support at S1 of $32.8916.
- Copper: Range-bound with low volatility (ATR $0.1183). Net length modest at 18,926. Trade the range between S1 of $4.7745 and R1 of $4.8930.
- Soybeans: Near upper end of 20-day range (80.80% channel position) but down 1.05% on the day. Watch for pullback toward S1 of 1,032.9166.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.