1. Executive Summary
Commodities closed the 2025-05-16 session with a clear divergence between the energy complex and the metals and agricultural complexes. Crude oil was the strongest major performer, with WTI (CL=F) settling at $62.49, up 1.41% on the day and 2.41% over five sessions, while Brent (BZ=F) closed at $65.41, up 1.36%. The move extends a constructive run in crude, with the front-month contract now sitting at a 73.40% channel position within its 20-day range of $55.30–$65.09. Natural gas (NG=F) bucked the energy bid, falling 0.83% to $3.334 and down 12.15% over five sessions, the weakest five-day reading among the major contracts in our coverage.
Precious metals remained under pressure. Gold (GC=F) settled at $3,182.00, down 1.20% on the day, down 4.60% over five sessions and down 3.83% over twenty sessions, leaving the metal at a 15.80% channel position within its 20-day range of $3,125.00–$3,485.60. Silver (SI=F) fell 0.99% to $32.158, and platinum (PL=F) eased 0.63% to $990.20. Base metals were weaker still, with copper (HG=F) down 1.92% to $4.5555 and aluminium (ALI=F) down 0.57% to $2,389.75.
The macro driver remains the restrictive US rates backdrop. According to the latest macro data, the 10-year TIPS real yield stands at 2.09% (2025-05-16), the effective fed funds rate at 4.33% (2025-05-01), and the 10-year/2-year Treasury spread at +0.45% (2025-05-16). The dollar index (DXY) was quoted at 101.09, a persistent headwind for dollar-denominated commodities. Credit conditions appear orderly, with the BofA high-yield spread at 3.16% and VIX at 17.24.
Positioning data from the CFTC (report date 2025-05-13) show managed-money net length of 101,227 contracts in gold, down 864 w/w, and 118,096 contracts in crude oil, down 10,479 w/w. Natural gas remains net short 38,523 contracts, though that short was trimmed by 6,654 contracts w/w. EIA data show crude inventories at 443,158 thousand barrels, up 1,328 thousand barrels w/w, with refinery utilization at 90.70%.
The primary risk factor for the next session is the persistence of elevated real yields and a firm dollar, which may continue to cap precious metals and base metals, while the energy complex remains supported by the constructive crude tape.
2. Overnight Market Recap
Gold (GC=F). Gold settled at $3,182.00 on 2025-05-16, down 1.20% on the day. The session opened at $3,227.70, printed a high of $3,228.10 and a low of $3,173.90, before closing near the lower end of the range. The move extends a difficult stretch for the yellow metal: gold is down 4.60% over five sessions and 3.83% over twenty sessions. The 20-day range spans $3,125.00 to $3,485.60, placing the close at a 15.80% channel position — the lower quartile of the recent range. The average true range (ATR) stands at $73.54, indicating that daily swings of roughly $70–$75 remain the norm. Volume and open interest for the futures contract were not available in the dataset.
Silver (SI=F). Silver closed at $32.158, down 0.99% on the day. The contract opened at $32.195, traded a high of $32.240 and a low of $31.910. Silver is down 1.59% over five sessions and 0.81% over twenty sessions, with a 20-day range of $31.685–$33.550 and a channel position of 25.40%. The ATR is $0.7076. The gold/silver ratio stands at 98.95, a level that historically has coincided with periods of precious-metals consolidation.
Crude Oil (CL=F). WTI crude was the strongest performer in the complex, settling at $62.49, up 1.41% on the day. The session opened at $61.70, traded a high of $62.71 and a low of $61.25. Crude is up 2.41% over five sessions, though still down 3.39% over twenty sessions. The 20-day range is $55.30–$65.09, with the close at a 73.40% channel position. The ATR is $2.2843. Brent (BZ=F) closed at $65.41, up 1.36%, with a 20-day range of $58.41–$68.64 and a channel position of 68.40%. The WTI-Brent spread implied by the two settlements is approximately $2.92.
Natural Gas (NG=F). Natural gas settled at $3.334, down 0.83% on the day and down 12.15% over five sessions — the weakest five-day performance among the major contracts. The session opened at $3.372, traded a high of $3.449 and a low of $3.305. The 20-day range is $2.858–$3.840, with the close at a 48.50% channel position. The ATR is $0.2028.
Copper (HG=F). Copper closed at $4.5555, down 1.92% on the day, down 1.20% over five sessions and down 3.72% over twenty sessions. The session opened at $4.621, traded a high of $4.6225 and a low of $4.5335. The 20-day range is $4.4480–$4.9145, with the close at a 23.00% channel position. The ATR is $0.1283. Aluminium (ALI=F) closed at $2,389.75, down 0.57%.
Soybeans (ZS=F). Soybeans settled at $1,050.00, down 0.12% on the day, but up 0.57% over five sessions and 1.30% over twenty sessions. The session opened at $1,052.50, traded a high of $1,059.75 and a low of $1,047.25. The 20-day range is $1,027.00–$1,075.00, with the close at a 47.90% channel position. The ATR is $15.00. In the broader grain complex, corn (ZC=F) fell 1.11% to $443.50 and wheat (ZW=F) fell 1.45% to $525.00.
3. Macro Landscape
The macro backdrop on 2025-05-16 remains defined by restrictive US monetary conditions and a firm dollar. According to the latest available macro data, the effective federal funds rate stands at 4.33% (2025-05-01), while the 10-year TIPS real yield is 2.09% (2025-05-16). Real yields at these levels raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold and silver, which is consistent with the precious-metals weakness observed in the session.
The nominal 10-year Treasury yield was quoted at 4.43% (^TNX, 2025-05-16). The 10-year/2-year spread stands at +0.45% (2025-05-16), a positive but modest slope that is consistent with a soft-landing rather than a recessionary signal. The dollar index (DXY) was quoted at 101.09, a level that continues to weigh on dollar-denominated commodity prices across the board.
Inflation data show the unadjusted CPI index at 320.62 (2025-05-01) and the core PCE price index at 125.79 (2025-05-01), the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation anchor. Labour-market data show total nonfarm payrolls at 158,498 thousand (2025-05-01) and the unemployment rate at 4.30% (2025-05-01).
Liquidity conditions appear orderly. The Federal Reserve's total balance sheet stood at $6,713,270 million (2025-05-14), reflecting the ongoing quantitative tightening programme. The overnight reverse repo facility stood at $136.799 billion (2025-05-16), a relatively low level that suggests ample reserve abundance. Credit markets show no acute stress: the BofA high-yield spread is 3.16% (2025-05-16), well contained relative to crisis thresholds.
Risk sentiment was measured. The VIX index was quoted at 17.24, a level consistent with moderate but not elevated equity-market volatility. Equity futures were quoted with S&P 500 futures (ES=F) at 5,975.50 and Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ=F) at 21,506.00, though daily percentage changes for these contracts were not available in the dataset.
No central bank policy updates were available in the dataset for the session. The economic calendar for the coming seven days was not populated in the provided data.
4. Fund Positioning - CFTC
According to CFTC Commitments of Traders data for the report date 2025-05-13, positioning across the major commodity markets shows a mixed picture, with reductions in precious-metals and crude-oil length and a modest reduction in the natural-gas short.
Gold. Managed-money net length stood at 101,227 contracts, comprising 144,410 long and 43,183 short positions against total open interest of 440,842 contracts. Net length declined by 864 contracts week-over-week. The reduction is modest relative to the size of the gross long book, suggesting that the recent price weakness has not yet triggered a broad liquidation of speculative length.
Silver. Net length was 28,333 contracts (43,522 long versus 15,189 short) against open interest of 138,262 contracts. Net length fell by 1,549 contracts week-over-week, a larger proportional reduction than in gold, consistent with silver's underperformance.
Crude Oil. Managed-money net length stood at 118,096 contracts (191,026 long versus 72,930 short) against open interest of 1,948,099 contracts. Net length fell by 10,479 contracts week-over-week — the largest absolute weekly reduction among the markets covered. Despite the reduction, crude-oil net length remains the largest absolute speculative long among the five markets, indicating that the crude complex retains a substantial bullish positioning overhang.
Natural Gas. Managed-money positioning remains net short, at -38,523 contracts (134,937 long versus 173,460 short) against open interest of 1,530,591 contracts. The net short was reduced by 6,654 contracts week-over-week, indicating that speculative accounts trimmed bearish exposure even as the price fell 12.15% over five sessions.
Copper. Net length was 23,792 contracts (52,763 long versus 28,971 short) against open interest of 195,840 contracts. Net length rose by 1,707 contracts week-over-week, making copper the only market in the coverage set to record a weekly increase in net length. This is notable given copper's 1.92% decline on 2025-05-16 and 3.72% twenty-day decline.
From a contrarian perspective, the large and persistent crude-oil net long, combined with the weekly reduction, warrants monitoring: further liquidation could amplify downside moves, while the reduction itself may have removed some froth. The natural-gas net short, though trimmed, remains a crowded bearish position that could be vulnerable to short-covering rallies. Copper's counter-trend build in net length against falling prices is a divergence worth tracking.
5. Today's Focus
Energy inventories. According to EIA data for the week reported 2025-05-16, crude inventories stood at 443,158 thousand barrels, an increase of 1,328 thousand barrels week-over-week. Gasoline inventories were 225,522 thousand barrels, up 816 thousand barrels w/w, and distillate inventories were 104,132 thousand barrels, up 579 thousand barrels w/w. Refinery utilization was 90.70%. The builds across crude, gasoline and distillate are a bearish input for the energy complex, though the crude price still managed a 1.41% gain on the session, suggesting that other factors — likely geopolitical or demand-side — offset the inventory build.
Precious-metals real-yield pressure. With the 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.09% and the dollar index at 101.09, the macro configuration remains hostile to gold and silver. Market participants will be watching whether gold can hold the lower bound of its recent range; the 20-day low of $3,125.00 is the key level in focus.
Positioning adjustments. Following the CFTC report showing a 10,479-contract reduction in crude-oil net length and a 6,654-contract reduction in the natural-gas net short, the market will be assessing whether these adjustments continue. The copper net-length build of 1,707 contracts against falling prices is a notable divergence.
No economic data releases were populated in the provided economic calendar for the session, and no headlines were available in the dataset.
6. Technical Outlook
Gold (GC=F). Gold closed at $3,182.00, below the daily pivot of $3,194.67. The first resistance level (R1) is $3,215.43 and the first support level (S1) is $3,161.23. The ATR is $73.54. The metal is in a short-term downtrend: it is down 4.60% over five sessions and 3.83% over twenty sessions, and sits at a 15.80% channel position within its 20-day range of $3,125.00–$3,485.60. The close below the pivot and the proximity to the 20-day low of $3,125.00 suggest that the path of least resistance remains lower in the near term. A sustained break below $3,161.23 (S1) could open the door to a test of the $3,125.00 area. Conversely, a reclaim of $3,215.43 (R1) would be needed to stabilise the tape. Given the elevated real-yield backdrop, rallies may be sold, but the metal is approaching a technically significant support zone where dip-buying interest could emerge. RSI and MACD values were not available in the dataset.
Crude Oil (CL=F). WTI closed at $62.49, above the daily pivot of $62.15. R1 is $63.05 and S1 is $61.59. The ATR is $2.2843. Crude is in a constructive short-term uptrend, up 2.41% over five sessions, though still down 3.39% over twenty sessions. The close at a 73.40% channel position within the 20-day range of $55.30–$65.09 indicates that the contract is trading in the upper portion of its recent range. A break above $63.05 (R1) could target the 20-day high of $65.09, while a loss of $61.59 (S1) would weaken the constructive setup. The EIA inventory build of 1,328 thousand barrels is a bearish fundamental offset to the constructive technical picture. RSI and MACD values were not available in the dataset.
Copper (HG=F). Copper closed at $4.5555, below the daily pivot of $4.5705. R1 is $4.6075 and S1 is $4.5185. The ATR is $0.1283. Copper is in a downtrend, down 1.20% over five sessions and 3.72% over twenty sessions, and sits at a 23.00% channel position within its 20-day range of $4.4480–$4.9145. The close below the pivot and the weak channel position suggest continued downside risk. A break below $4.5185 (S1) could target the 20-day low of $4.4480, while a reclaim of $4.6075 (R1) would be required to signal stabilisation. Notably, CFTC data show managed-money net length rose by 1,707 contracts week-over-week even as prices fell, a divergence that could presage either a contrarian bottom or further pain if that length is liquidated. RSI and MACD values were not available in the dataset.
7. Cross-Asset Monitor
The cross-asset configuration on 2025-05-16 shows a dollar and real-yield environment that is broadly restrictive for commodities. The dollar index (DXY) was quoted at 101.09, and the 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.09%. The historical inverse relationship between the dollar and dollar-denominated commodities is consistent with the session's weakness in gold, silver and copper.
The gold/silver ratio stands at 98.95, a high reading that reflects silver's underperformance relative to gold. The copper/gold ratio is 0.001432, and the oil/gold ratio is 0.0196. The crack spread (3-2-1) is $27.45, a level that indicates positive refining margins and provides an economic incentive for crude demand.
Within the energy complex, the divergence between crude oil (up 1.41%) and natural gas (down 0.83%, and down 12.15% over five sessions) is pronounced. The WTI-Brent spread, implied by the $62.49 and $65.41 settlements, is approximately $2.92. The gasoline crack and distillate cracks, as reflected in the 3-2-1 crack spread of $27.45, remain supportive of refinery runs, consistent with the 90.70% refinery utilization reported by the EIA.
In the base-metals basket, copper (down 1.92%) and aluminium (down 0.57%) both weakened, consistent with the firm dollar and the risk-off tone in industrial metals. The copper/gold ratio at 0.001432 is a useful barometer of global growth expectations relative to safe-haven demand; its current level reflects a market that is pricing modest growth with a defensive tilt.
Equity futures were quoted with ES=F at 5,975.50 and NQ=F at 21,506.00, and the VIX at 17.24, indicating moderate risk aversion but no acute stress. The high-yield credit spread at 3.16% corroborates the absence of systemic stress.
8. Risk Factors
1. Real-yield and dollar persistence. With the 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.09% and DXY at 101.09, a further rise in real yields or dollar strength could extend losses in gold, silver and copper.
2. Energy inventory overhang. EIA data show crude inventories up 1,328 thousand barrels w/w, gasoline up 816 thousand barrels and distillate up 579 thousand barrels. Continued builds could cap crude-oil rallies.
3. Crude-oil positioning liquidation. CFTC data show crude-oil net length fell 10,479 contracts w/w. Further liquidation of the remaining 118,096-contract net long could amplify downside moves.
4. Natural-gas short-covering. The natural-gas net short of 38,523 contracts, though trimmed by 6,654 w/w, remains crowded. A short-covering rally is a non-trivial risk given the 12.15% five-day decline.
5. Copper positioning divergence. Managed-money net length in copper rose 1,707 contracts w/w even as prices fell 1.92% on the day. If that length is liquidated, copper could face outsized downside.
9. Week Ahead
The economic calendar for the coming seven days was not populated in the provided dataset, and no central bank or OPEC+ events were listed. Market participants will nonetheless monitor the following themes over the next five trading days.
First, the trajectory of US real yields and the dollar will remain the dominant macro driver for precious and base metals. The 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.09% and DXY at 101.09 are the key reference points.
Second, energy markets will digest the latest EIA inventory data, which showed crude, gasoline and distillate builds. Any subsequent inventory releases will be closely watched for confirmation or reversal of the build trend.
Third, positioning data will be updated in the next CFTC report, providing a read on whether the crude-oil net-length reduction and the natural-gas short-covering continue.
Fourth, the grain complex will remain sensitive to weather and export demand, with soybeans at $1,050.00, corn at $443.50 and wheat at $525.00.
No scheduled data releases, OPEC+ meetings or central bank events were available in the provided calendar.
10. Trading Desk Summary
- Crude oil: Constructive tape with WTI at $62.49 (+1.41%), above the $62.15 pivot; watch $63.05 (R1) resistance and $61.59 (S1) support. EIA builds are a caveat.
- Gold: Weak, at $3,182.00 (-1.20%), below the $3,194.67 pivot; $3,161.23 (S1) and the $3,125.00 20-day low are key supports. Real yields at 2.09% remain a headwind.
- Silver: At $32.158 (-0.99%), with the gold/silver ratio at 98.95; range-bound between $31.685 and $33.550.
- Copper: At $4.5555 (-1.92%), below the $4.5705 pivot; $4.5185 (S1) and $4.4480 (20-day low) in focus. CFTC net-length build is a divergence to monitor.
- Natural gas: At $3.334 (-0.83%), down 12.15% over five sessions; crowded net short of 38,523 contracts is a short-covering risk.
- Soybeans: At $1,050.00 (-0.12%), mid-range; corn and wheat both weaker.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.