1. Executive Summary
Natural gas was the session's dominant mover, with NG=F settling at $3.2040/MMBtu, down 5.71% on the day and 6.51% over five sessions, according to exchange settlement data for 2025-05-28. The contract printed an intraday range of $3.1520–$3.5110 and closed at the 14.30% mark of its 20-day high-low channel ($3.0980–$3.8400), underscoring the severity of the selloff. Crude oil moved in the opposite direction: CL=F settled at $61.8400/bbl, up 1.56%, with Brent (BZ=F) at $64.9000, up 1.26%, leaving the WTI-Brent spread at roughly $3.06.
Precious metals were modestly lower. Gold (GC=F) settled at $3,293.6001/oz, down 0.17%, holding the 55.10% position of its 20-day range ($3,125.00–$3,430.90). Silver (SI=F) closed at $33.0000/oz, down 0.44%, at the 69.60% channel position. The gold-silver ratio stood at 99.81, per cross-asset data for the same date. Base metals weakened: copper (HG=F) fell 1.40% to $4.6440/lb, and the copper-gold ratio registered 0.001410. In agriculture, soybeans (ZS=F) declined 1.32% to 1,048.50 cents/bu, corn (ZC=F) fell 1.85% to 451.00 cents/bu, and wheat (ZW=F) bucked the trend, up 0.33% to 530.25 cents/bu.
The macro driver remains the restrictive real-rate environment. The 10-year TIPS real yield (DFII10) stood at 2.15% as of 2025-05-28, the effective fed funds rate (FEDFUNDS) at 4.33%, and the 10y-2y Treasury spread (T10Y2Y) at +0.51%. The high-yield credit spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) at 3.23% indicates contained liquidity stress. The dollar index (DX-Y.NYB) at 99.8800 and VIX at 19.31 round out a mildly risk-cautious backdrop.
The primary risk factor for today is the energy complex's internal divergence — a 5.71% natural gas collapse alongside a 1.56% crude rally — set against CFTC data showing managed-money net length falling 7,932 lots in crude and 6,784 lots in natural gas. This positioning retreat, combined with a firm dollar, argues for continued two-way volatility.
2. Overnight Market Recap
Gold (GC=F). Gold settled at $3,293.6001/oz on 2025-05-28, down 0.17% from the prior close of $3,299.1001. The session open matched the settlement print at $3,293.6001, with the reported high and low both at that level, reflecting a compressed intraday range in the available data. Over five sessions gold is up 0.41%, but down 0.76% over 20 sessions, per the performance table. The 20-day high-low channel spans $3,125.00–$3,430.90, placing the close at the 55.10% position. ATR has compressed to 64.2286 from 67.6929 on 2025-05-27, indicating declining realized volatility. The pivot, R1, and S1 are all reported at $3,293.6001, a flat technical configuration consistent with the narrow session range.
Silver (SI=F). Silver closed at $33.0000/oz, down 0.44% from $33.1460. The session traded between $32.9550 and $33.1450. Five-day performance is +0.06%, while 20-day performance is -0.83%. The 20-day channel runs from $31.6850 to $33.5750, with the close at the 69.60% position — the strongest channel placement among the major precious metals. ATR eased to 0.5630 from 0.6149. Pivot is $33.0333, with R1 at $33.1116 and S1 at $32.9216.
Crude Oil (CL=F). WTI settled at $61.8400/bbl, up 1.56% from $60.8900. The session range was $60.8500–$62.5400. Five-day performance is -1.15%, while 20-day performance is +2.35%. The 20-day channel spans $55.3000–$64.1900, placing the close at the 73.60% position. ATR has declined to 1.9050 from 1.9593. Pivot is $61.7433, R1 $62.6366, S1 $60.9466. Brent (BZ=F) settled at $64.9000, up 1.26%, at the 71.50% channel position, with ATR of 1.8443.
Natural Gas (NG=F). Natural gas was the weakest performer, settling at $3.2040/MMBtu, down 5.71% from $3.3980. The session range was wide at $3.1520–$3.5110. Five-day performance is -6.51% and 20-day is -5.38%. The 20-day channel spans $3.0980–$3.8400, placing the close at just the 14.30% position — the weakest channel placement across the entire commodity complex covered here. ATR is 0.2096. Pivot is $3.2890, R1 $3.4260, S1 $3.0670.
Copper (HG=F). Copper settled at $4.6440/lb, down 1.40% from $4.7100. The session range was $4.6360–$4.7400. Five-day performance is +0.53%, but 20-day is -3.71%. The 20-day channel spans $4.4480–$4.8420, placing the close at the 49.70% position. ATR is 0.1086. Pivot is $4.6733, R1 $4.7106, S1 $4.6066.
Soybeans (ZS=F). Soybeans settled at 1,048.50 cents/bu, down 1.32% from 1,062.50. The session range was 1,047.50–1,064.25. Five-day performance is -0.43%, while 20-day is +0.72%. The 20-day channel spans 1,027.00–1,075.00, placing the close at the 44.80% position. ATR is 15.2500. Pivot is 1,053.4167, R1 1,059.3334, S1 1,042.5834. Related complexes also weakened: soybean meal (ZM=F) fell 0.88% to 293.70, and soybean oil (ZL=F) fell 1.29% to 48.93.
3. Macro Landscape
The macro configuration as of 2025-05-28 remains restrictive for commodity carry. The 10-year TIPS real yield (DFII10) stood at 2.15%, a level that raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold and silver. The effective fed funds rate (FEDFUNDS) was 4.33% as of 2025-05-01, and the 10-year nominal yield (^TNX) printed 4.4770% on 2025-05-28, per the cross-asset table which lists us10y_yield at 4.4700. The 10y-2y spread (T10Y2Y) at +0.51% remains positively sloped, consistent with a soft-landing rather than recessionary pricing.
Inflation anchors show the CPI index (CPIAUCSL) at 320.6200 as of 2025-05-01, with core PCE (PCEPILFE) at 125.7900. The labor market remains firm, with non-farm payrolls (PAYEMS) at 158,498 thousand and unemployment (UNRATE) at 4.30% as of 2025-05-01. These readings support the case for the Fed to remain on hold, keeping real rates elevated.
Liquidity metrics are mixed. The Fed's total balance sheet (RESPPANWW) stood at $6,673,244 million as of 2025-05-28, reflecting the ongoing quantitative tightening trajectory. The overnight reverse repo facility (RRPONTSYD) held $173.641 billion, indicating that the system's excess-liquidity buffer continues to drain. The high-yield credit spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) at 3.23% signals no acute liquidity crisis, which is supportive of cyclical commodity demand but removes a safe-haven bid.
The dollar index (DX-Y.NYB) at 99.8800 remains a headwind for dollar-denominated commodities. Equity futures were firm, with ES=F at 5,902.75 and NQ=F at 21,379.75, suggesting a risk-on tone that typically weighs on gold and supports industrial metals — though copper's 1.40% decline ran counter to that pattern. The VIX at 19.31 indicates moderate volatility expectations, above the typical complacency threshold but below stress levels.
No Fed, ECB, or BOJ policy decisions are captured in the data for this date. The only headline in the 48-hour window is an ECB consumer expectations survey release dated 2025-05-28, which the source explicitly notes is not a monetary policy decision and contains no rate, QE, or PEPP information.
4. Fund Positioning - CFTC
According to CFTC Commitments of Traders data for the report date 2025-05-27, positioning across the five tracked contracts was mixed, with precious metals attracting fresh length while energy and copper saw liquidation.
Gold. Managed-money net length rose to 110,816 contracts, up 3,187 week-over-week, against open interest of 437,538. Longs totaled 147,502 and shorts 36,686, implying a long-to-short ratio of approximately 4.02:1. The net-long increase against a modestly lower price over the reporting window suggests dip-buying behavior among managed-money accounts.
Silver. Net length increased to 33,212 contracts, up 2,767 week-over-week, with open interest of 147,555. Longs stood at 48,645 and shorts at 15,433, a long-to-short ratio of roughly 3.15:1. Silver's net-long build outpaced gold's in percentage terms relative to open interest, consistent with the metal's stronger 20-day channel position (69.60%).
Crude Oil. Net length fell to 103,947 contracts, down 7,932 week-over-week — the largest absolute decline among the tracked contracts. Open interest was 1,943,708, with longs at 181,394 and shorts at 77,447. The long-to-short ratio of approximately 2.34:1 remains net-long but the pace of liquidation is notable and aligns with the five-day price decline of 1.15%.
Natural Gas. Net positioning was -63,286 contracts, a net short, deteriorating by 6,784 week-over-week. Longs totaled 135,176 against shorts of 198,462, a short-to-long ratio of approximately 1.47:1. This is the only net-short contract in the tracked set and represents the most crowded directional trade on the short side. Combined with the 5.71% single-day decline, the positioning data suggest that short-side conviction was rewarded during the session.
Copper. Net length was 20,837 contracts, essentially unchanged at -45 week-over-week, with open interest of 208,601. Longs were 49,269 and shorts 28,432, a long-to-short ratio of approximately 1.73:1. The stability of copper positioning contrasts with the 1.40% price decline, suggesting the move was flow-driven rather than positioning-driven.
From a contrarian standpoint, the natural gas net short of -63,286 contracts is the most extended positioning in the dataset and warrants monitoring for squeeze risk. Conversely, gold's net length of 110,816 contracts, while rising, is not at an extreme relative to open interest.
5. Today's Focus
The economic calendar for the coming seven days is empty in the provided data, so today's focus rests on price action and positioning signals rather than scheduled releases.
First, the natural gas session is the key watch item. The 5.71% decline to $3.2040, closing at the 14.30% channel position, combined with a net-short CFTC position of -63,286 contracts, sets up a potentially volatile follow-through. The S1 pivot at $3.0670 and the 20-day low at $3.0980 define the immediate downside reference levels.
Second, the crude oil rebound of 1.56% to $61.8400 deserves attention given the 7,932-lot reduction in managed-money net length. If the price rally continues while positioning remains light, it would suggest the move is being driven by commercial or physical flows rather than speculative length. The R1 pivot at $62.6366 is the immediate upside reference.
Third, the EIA weekly inventory data for the week ending 2025-05-23 showed crude inventories at 440,363 thousand barrels, a weekly change of -2,795 thousand barrels. Gasoline inventories fell 2,441 thousand barrels to 223,081 thousand, and distillate inventories fell 724 thousand barrels to 103,408 thousand. Refinery utilization stood at 90.20%. These draws are supportive of the crude complex and may help explain the session's 1.56% rally.
No USDA reports, OPEC+ meetings, or central bank events are captured in the provided calendar data for today.
6. Technical Outlook
Gold (GC=F). Gold is in a range-bound configuration. The close at $3,293.6001 sits at the 55.10% position of the 20-day channel ($3,125.00–$3,430.90), essentially mid-range. The five-day change of +0.41% against a 20-day change of -0.76% indicates a modest short-term stabilization within a slightly negative medium-term drift. ATR has declined to 64.2286 from 67.6929, signaling compressing volatility that often precedes a directional resolution. The pivot, R1, and S1 are all reported at $3,293.6001, which reflects the narrow session range rather than a meaningful technical level. Traders may watch the $3,430.90 20-day high as resistance and the $3,125.00 20-day low as support. Given the mid-range position and declining ATR, a range-trading approach — buying dips toward the lower channel and selling rallies toward the upper channel — may be appropriate, though the elevated 2.15% real yield remains a structural headwind.
Crude Oil (CL=F). Crude is in a constructive uptrend within its 20-day range. The close at $61.8400 sits at the 73.60% channel position, with the 20-day change at +2.35% despite a -1.15% five-day pullback. The session's 1.56% gain reclaimed ground above the pivot at $61.7433. Immediate resistance is R1 at $62.6366, with the 20-day high at $64.1900 as the broader target. Support is S1 at $60.9466, followed by the 20-day low at $55.3000. ATR at 1.9050 is declining, suggesting a maturing trend. The combination of supportive EIA inventory draws (crude -2,795 thousand barrels) and lightened speculative positioning (net length -7,932 lots) suggests the rally may have room to extend, though the firm dollar at 99.88 caps upside. A buy-dips posture toward the pivot is favored over chasing strength.
Copper (HG=F). Copper is the weakest of the three on a medium-term basis, with a 20-day change of -3.71% against a five-day gain of +0.53%. The close at $4.6440 sits at the 49.70% channel position, dead center of the $4.4480–$4.8420 range. The session's 1.40% decline broke below the pivot at $4.6733 and is approaching S1 at $4.6066. ATR at 0.1086 is stable. The flat CFTC positioning (-45 lots week-over-week) suggests no strong directional conviction. Given the mid-range position and negative 20-day momentum, a neutral-to-cautious stance is warranted, with a break below S1 at $4.6066 potentially opening the 20-day low at $4.4480.
7. Cross-Asset Monitor
The gold-silver ratio stood at 99.81 as of 2025-05-28, a historically elevated reading that reflects silver's underperformance relative to gold over the medium term. The copper-gold ratio registered 0.001410, and the oil-gold ratio 0.0188, both consistent with a macro environment in which precious metals have outperformed industrial and energy commodities on a relative basis.
The dollar index (DX-Y.NYB) at 99.8800 remains the primary cross-asset headwind. A firm dollar mechanically pressures dollar-denominated commodities, and the session's mixed performance — energy up, metals down — suggests the dollar effect was offset by commodity-specific factors, particularly the EIA inventory draws supporting crude.
The gold versus real-yield relationship is the key macro linkage. With the 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.15% and gold essentially flat (-0.17%), the historical inverse correlation appears to be holding, with gold's resilience attributable to safe-haven demand rather than real-rate dynamics.
Within the energy complex, the crude-natural gas divergence was stark: WTI +1.56% against natural gas -5.71%, a spread of 727 basis points in a single session. The crack spread (crack_spread_321) stood at 25.89, per cross-asset data, indicating healthy refining margins that support crude demand. Heating oil (HO=F) rose 0.42% to 2.0881, and RBOB gasoline (RB=F) rose 0.85% to 2.0892, both consistent with the crude rally.
The base metals basket was weak, with copper down 1.40% and aluminum (ALI=F) down 0.64% to 2,358.25. Zinc (ZNC=F) was unchanged at 2,297.00. The broad base-metals softness against firm equity futures (ES=F at 5,902.75) suggests commodity-specific rather than macro-driven selling.
8. Risk Factors
1. Natural gas squeeze risk. The net-short CFTC position of -63,286 contracts, combined with the 5.71% single-day decline, creates the potential for a violent short-covering rally if any supply-side disruption emerges. The 20-day low at $3.0980 is the key level to watch.
2. Dollar strength. The dollar index at 99.8800 remains a broad headwind. A further appreciation could pressure the entire commodity complex, particularly gold and copper.
3. Real-rate risk. The 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.15% is elevated. Any further rise would increase the opportunity cost of holding gold and could trigger renewed liquidation.
4. Energy divergence. The 727-basis-point single-session spread between crude and natural gas reflects an unstable configuration that could resolve violently in either direction.
5. Positioning unwind in crude. The 7,932-lot weekly reduction in managed-money net length, if it continues, could cap the crude rally despite supportive inventories.
9. Week Ahead
The provided economic calendar for the next seven days is empty, so no scheduled data releases, OPEC+ meetings, or central bank events are captured in the data. Market participants will therefore likely focus on the ongoing EIA weekly inventory cycle, with the next release expected to follow the pattern established by the 2025-05-23 report showing crude at 440,363 thousand barrels (-2,795 thousand week-over-week), gasoline at 223,081 thousand (-2,441 thousand), and distillate at 103,408 thousand (-724 thousand), with refinery utilization at 90.20%.
Key levels to monitor over the coming five sessions: gold's 20-day range of $3,125.00–$3,430.90; crude's 20-day range of $55.3000–$64.1900 with R1 at $62.6366; natural gas's 20-day low at $3.0980 and S1 at $3.0670; copper's S1 at $4.6066 and 20-day low at $4.4480; and soybeans' 20-day range of 1,027.00–1,075.00.
CFTC positioning updates for the next report date will be closely watched, particularly whether the natural gas net short extends further and whether the crude net-length reduction continues.
10. Trading Desk Summary
- Natural gas: Down 5.71% to $3.2040, at the 14.30% channel position. Net-short CFTC positioning at -63,286 contracts. Watch $3.0980 (20-day low) and S1 at $3.0670. Squeeze risk is elevated.
- Crude oil: Up 1.56% to $61.8400, at the 73.60% channel position. EIA crude draw of 2,795 thousand barrels supportive. R1 at $62.6366 is the immediate target; S1 at $60.9466 is support.
- Gold: Down 0.17% to $3,293.6001, mid-range at 55.10%. Real yield at 2.15% is a headwind. Range-trade between $3,125.00 and $3,430.90.
- Silver: Down 0.44% to $33.0000, at the 69.60% channel position. Gold-silver ratio at 99.81 remains elevated.
- Copper: Down 1.40% to $4.6440, mid-range at 49.70%. Flat CFTC positioning. Watch S1 at $4.6066.
- Soybeans: Down 1.32% to 1,048.50 cents/bu, at the 44.80% channel position. S1 at 1,042.5834 is support.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.