1. Executive Summary
Natural gas was the dominant mover in the 2025-05-29 session, with NYMEX Henry Hub futures (NG=F) settling at $3.5220/MMBtu, a gain of 9.93% on the day. This follows a 5.71% decline on 2025-05-28 that took the contract to $3.2040, underscoring an exceptionally volatile two-session sequence in the energy complex. Crude oil moved in the opposite direction: WTI (CL=F) settled at $60.94/bbl, down 1.46%, while Brent (BZ=F) closed at $64.15/bbl, down 1.16%. The WTI-Brent spread implied by these settlements is approximately $3.21/bbl.
Precious metals were firmer. Gold (GC=F) settled at $3,317.1001/oz, up 0.71%, and silver (SI=F) closed at $33.2830/oz, up 0.86%. The gold/silver ratio stood at 99.66, per the cross-asset data set. Base metals were mixed: copper (HG=F) edged up 0.20% to $4.6535/lb, while aluminum (ALI=F) fell 0.59% to $2,344.25 and zinc (ZNC=F) was unchanged at $2,297.00. In agriculture, soybeans (ZS=F) rose 0.31% to $1,051.75/bu, corn (ZC=F) fell 0.89% to $447.00/bu, and wheat (ZW=F) gained 0.71% to $534.00/bu.
The macro driver set remains centered on restrictive policy. According to the provided macro data, the effective fed funds rate stands at 4.33% (2025-05-01), the 10-year TIPS real yield is 2.11% (2025-05-29), and the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread is +0.51% (2025-05-29). The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB) was quoted at 99.2800. The BofA high-yield credit spread at 3.22% (2025-05-29) remains well contained, suggesting no acute liquidity event is priced.
The primary risk factor for today is energy volatility. Natural gas has now printed daily moves of -5.71% and +9.93% in consecutive sessions, and CFTC data as of 2025-05-27 showed managed-money net short positioning of -63,286 contracts, a further -6,784 week-over-week. That crowded short base is a plausible mechanical contributor to sharp short-covering rallies, though the data alone does not establish causation. Crude oil's managed-money net length fell 7,932 contracts to 103,947, indicating reduced bullish conviction even as WTI holds above the $60 handle.
2. Overnight Market Recap
Gold (GC=F). Gold settled at $3,317.1001/oz on 2025-05-29, up 0.71% from the prior close of $3,293.6001. The session range was $3,242.3999 to $3,328.80, an intraday swing of roughly $86, against an ATR of $63.1643. The 5-day change was +0.24% and the 20-day change +0.37%, indicating a broadly sideways consolidation over the past month. The 20-day high is $3,430.8999 and the 20-day low $3,125.00, placing the close at 62.80% of the 20-day channel. Gold's advance occurred alongside a 10-year TIPS real yield of 2.11%, a level that historically represents a headwind for non-yielding assets; gold's resilience against that backdrop is notable but should not be extrapolated.
Silver (SI=F). Silver closed at $33.2830/oz, up 0.86% from $33.0000. The intraday range was $32.66 to $33.44, versus an ATR of $0.6004. The 5-day change was -0.54% while the 20-day change was +2.31%, and the close sits at 84.60% of the 20-day channel ($31.6850–$33.5750). Silver's relative strength versus gold on the day narrowed the gold/silver ratio to 99.66.
Crude Oil (CL=F). WTI settled at $60.94/bbl, down 1.46% from $61.84. The session high was $63.07 and the low $60.55, a range of $2.52 against an ATR of $1.9029. The 5-day change was -1.02% and the 20-day change +4.69%. The close sits at 63.40% of the 20-day channel ($55.30–$64.19). Brent (BZ=F) settled at $64.15/bbl, down 1.16%, with a 20-day range of $58.41–$67.49 and a channel position of 63.20%. Per EIA data for the week ending 2025-05-23, crude inventories were 440,363 thousand barrels, a weekly draw of 2,795 thousand barrels; gasoline inventories fell 2,441 thousand barrels to 223,081 thousand barrels; distillate inventories fell 724 thousand barrels to 103,408 thousand barrels; and refinery utilization was 90.20%.
Natural Gas (NG=F). Natural gas settled at $3.5220/MMBtu, up 9.93% from $3.2040. The session range was $3.437 to $3.576 against an ATR of $0.2222. The 5-day change was +4.57% and the 20-day change +5.89%. The close sits at 57.10% of the 20-day channel ($3.0980–$3.8400). This was the largest single-day percentage move across the monitored complex.
Copper (HG=F). Copper settled at $4.6535/lb, up 0.20% from $4.6440. The session range was narrow at $4.6445–$4.6635 versus an ATR of $0.1010. The 5-day change was +0.33% and the 20-day change +2.05%, with the close at 52.20% of the 20-day channel ($4.4480–$4.8420).
Soybeans (ZS=F). Soybeans settled at $1,051.75/bu, up 0.31% from $1,048.50. The range was $1,040.00–$1,055.75 against an ATR of $15.6607. The 5-day change was -1.04% and the 20-day change +1.64%, with the close at 51.60% of the 20-day channel ($1,027.00–$1,075.00).
3. Macro Landscape
The macro configuration on 2025-05-29 remains one of restrictive policy and positive real rates. The effective federal funds rate is 4.33% (2025-05-01), and the 10-year TIPS real yield is 2.11% (2025-05-29). A positive real yield of this magnitude raises the opportunity cost of holding gold, yet gold settled higher on the day at $3,317.1001/oz. This divergence suggests that demand for gold is not being driven primarily by the real-rate channel in the current window, though the data provided does not identify the marginal buyer.
The nominal 10-year Treasury yield, per the cross-asset data, is 4.4300%. The 10-year minus 2-year spread is +0.5100% (2025-05-29), a positive slope consistent with a soft-landing or no-recession-imminent pricing, rather than an inverted curve signaling imminent contraction. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB) was quoted at 99.2800. A dollar at this level is a moderate headwind for dollar-denominated commodities, but the absence of a reported daily percentage change means the direction of the dollar move on the day cannot be stated from the provided data.
Liquidity and credit conditions appear benign. The BofA high-yield credit spread is 3.22% (2025-05-29), a level that does not indicate acute stress in corporate credit. The Fed's overnight reverse repo facility stood at $165.66 billion (2025-05-29), and the Fed's total balance sheet was $6,673,244 million (2025-05-28), reflecting the ongoing runoff of the balance sheet. The VIX index was 19.18, a level consistent with moderate but not elevated equity-market uncertainty.
Inflation data show the CPI index at 320.6200 (2025-05-01) and core PCE at 125.7900 (2025-05-01). The unemployment rate is 4.3000% (2025-05-01) and total nonfarm payrolls are 158,498 thousand (2025-05-01). Taken together, the labor market and inflation readings describe an economy that has cooled from peak tightness but has not deteriorated sharply.
The only headline in the provided 48-hour window is a European Central Bank release dated 2025-05-28 14:15:00, which the source explicitly characterizes as a euro-area consumer expectations survey result, not a monetary policy decision, with no rate change, QE/PEPP size, or forward guidance information. No Fed, ECB, or BOJ policy action is reported in the data set for this session.
4. Fund Positioning - CFTC
According to CFTC Commitments of Traders data as of the report date 2025-05-27, positioning across the monitored contracts was mixed, with notable reductions in energy length and additions in precious metals.
Gold. Managed-money net length was 110,816 contracts, comprising 147,502 long and 36,686 short. This represents a weekly increase of 3,187 contracts. Open interest was 437,538. Gold's net length is the largest among the five reported contracts, and the weekly build indicates that speculative accounts added to bullish exposure even as the real-rate backdrop remained restrictive.
Silver. Net length was 33,212 contracts (48,645 long, 15,433 short), up 2,767 week-over-week. Open interest was 147,555. The silver net long is roughly 30% of gold's net long, while silver's open interest is roughly 34% of gold's, indicating a proportionally similar speculative footprint.
Crude Oil. Net length was 103,947 contracts (181,394 long, 77,447 short), a weekly decline of 7,932 contracts. Open interest was 1,943,708. The reduction in net length came as WTI settled at $60.94/bbl on 2025-05-29, down 1.46% on the day and down 1.02% over five sessions. The combination of falling net length and a lower price is consistent with long liquidation, though the COT data is as of 2025-05-27 and does not capture the subsequent sessions.
Natural Gas. Net positioning was -63,286 contracts, meaning managed money was net short, with 135,176 long against 198,462 short. The weekly change was -6,784, indicating the net short grew. Open interest was 1,470,148. This is the only net-short position among the five reported contracts and represents the most crowded directional trade in the set. Natural gas then rallied 9.93% on 2025-05-29, one session after falling 5.71%; a large net-short base is a condition under which short-covering can amplify upside moves, but the provided data does not establish that short-covering caused the rally.
Copper. Net length was 20,837 contracts (49,269 long, 28,432 short), essentially unchanged with a weekly change of -45 contracts. Open interest was 208,601. Copper positioning is the most stable of the group.
In terms of crowding, natural gas stands out on the short side, and gold stands out on the long side in absolute terms. No COT category breakdown (producer hedging, CTA proxies, or managed-money net-long ratios) was available in the provided data, so a full crowding assessment cannot be completed.
5. Today's Focus
Energy volatility. The dominant focus for the session is the behavior of natural gas following its 9.93% advance to $3.5220/MMBtu. The contract has now moved -5.71% and +9.93% in two consecutive sessions, and the CFTC net short of -63,286 contracts as of 2025-05-27 provides a mechanical backdrop for amplified moves. Market participants will watch whether the rally holds above the pivot of $3.5117 or retraces toward the S1 of $3.4474.
Crude oil inventory context. Per EIA data for the week ending 2025-05-23, crude inventories fell 2,795 thousand barrels to 440,363 thousand barrels, gasoline inventories fell 2,441 thousand barrels to 223,081 thousand barrels, and distillate inventories fell 724 thousand barrels to 103,408 thousand barrels, with refinery utilization at 90.20%. Despite these draws, WTI settled lower on 2025-05-29 at $60.94/bbl, down 1.46%. The market's failure to rally on constructive inventory data is a notable signal, though a single session is not conclusive.
Economic calendar. The provided economic calendar for the next seven days is empty (N/A). No scheduled data releases are available in the data set for today. The only headline in the 48-hour window is the ECB consumer expectations survey dated 2025-05-28, which the source states contained no policy information.
Precious metals resilience. Gold and silver both advanced despite a 2.11% real yield and a dollar index at 99.2800. The gold/silver ratio at 99.66 will be watched for mean-reversion signals.
6. Technical Outlook
Gold (GC=F). The pivot is $3,296.1000, with R1 at $3,349.8001 and S1 at $3,263.4000. The ATR is $63.1643. The close of $3,317.1001 is above the pivot, a constructive short-term posture. The 20-day range is $3,125.00 to $3,430.8999, and the close sits at 62.80% of that channel. The 5-day change of +0.24% and 20-day change of +0.37% describe a range-bound rather than trending market. A sustained move above R1 at $3,349.80 would open the 20-day high at $3,430.90; a break below S1 at $3,263.40 would put the pivot failure in play and target the lower channel. Given the flat 5- and 20-day changes, the trend is best characterized as range-bound. No RSI or MACD values were provided in the data set.
Crude Oil (CL=F). The pivot is $61.5200, with R1 at $62.4900 and S1 at $59.9700. The ATR is $1.9029. The close of $60.94 is below the pivot, a soft short-term posture. The 20-day range is $55.30 to $64.19, and the close sits at 63.40% of that channel. The 20-day change of +4.69% remains positive even as the 5-day change of -1.02% turned negative, indicating a pullback within a broader up-move. A hold above S1 at $59.97 would keep the 20-day uptrend intact; a break below would target the mid-$50s. The 20-day high at $64.19 is the level to watch for a resumption of the advance.
Copper (HG=F). The pivot is $4.6538, with R1 at $4.6631 and S1 at $4.6441. The ATR is $0.1010. The close of $4.6535 is essentially at the pivot, reflecting a balanced market. The 20-day range is $4.4480 to $4.8420, and the close sits at 52.20% of that channel — the midpoint. The 5-day change of +0.33% and 20-day change of +2.05% indicate a mild uptrend that has stalled. The very tight R1-S1 band ($4.6441–$4.6631) relative to the ATR of $0.1010 suggests a compressed range that may resolve directionally. No RSI or MACD values were provided.
Silver (SI=F). The pivot is $33.1277, R1 $33.5954, S1 $32.8154, ATR $0.6004. The close of $33.2830 is above the pivot, and the 20-day channel position of 84.60% is the highest among the monitored metals, indicating relative strength.
7. Cross-Asset Monitor
The cross-asset data set for 2025-05-29 provides the following ratios and levels: gold/silver ratio 99.66; copper/gold ratio 0.001403; oil/gold ratio 0.0184; crack spread 3-2-1 at 25.40; DXY at 99.2800; U.S. 10-year yield at 4.4300%; Fed RRP volume at $165.66 billion; and VIX at 19.18.
The gold/silver ratio of 99.66 is elevated relative to historical norms, reflecting gold's outperformance over silver on a longer horizon even as silver outperformed on the day (+0.86% vs +0.71%). The oil/gold ratio of 0.0184 captures crude's weakness against gold on the session, consistent with WTI falling 1.46% while gold rose 0.71%. The copper/gold ratio of 0.001403 reflects copper's modest gain against gold's larger percentage advance.
The crack spread 3-2-1 at 25.40 provides a read on refining economics. With refinery utilization at 90.20% per EIA (week ending 2025-05-23) and product inventories drawing (gasoline -2,441 thousand barrels, distillate -724 thousand barrels), the crack spread level is consistent with a refining complex that is running hard but not oversupplied.
The dollar at 99.2800 and the 10-year yield at 4.4300% form the macro backdrop. The VIX at 19.18 indicates moderate equity-market uncertainty, which is broadly neutral for commodities as a risk asset class. The BofA high-yield spread at 3.22% signals no acute credit stress. No 30-day or 60-day cross-market correlations, betas, or realized-volatility metrics were provided in the data set.
8. Risk Factors
1. Natural gas two-way volatility. Consecutive daily moves of -5.71% and +9.93% in NG=F, against a managed-money net short of -63,286 contracts (CFTC, 2025-05-27), create elevated risk of further sharp reversals in either direction.
2. Crude oil demand signal. WTI fell 1.46% to $60.94/bbl despite EIA-reported draws in crude (-2,795 thousand barrels), gasoline (-2,441 thousand barrels), and distillate (-724 thousand barrels) for the week ending 2025-05-23. Continued failure to rally on bullish inventory data could signal weakening demand expectations.
3. Restrictive real rates. The 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.11% (2025-05-29) remains a structural headwind for gold, which nonetheless rose 0.71% on the day. A further rise in real yields could pressure precious metals.
4. Positioning reversal risk. Gold managed-money net length rose 3,187 contracts to 110,816 (CFTC, 2025-05-27). A crowded long base is vulnerable to liquidation if the macro narrative shifts.
5. Data gaps. The economic calendar for the next seven days is empty in the provided data, and no ETF holdings, term-structure, or inventory-panorama data were available, limiting visibility into near-term catalysts.
9. Week Ahead
The provided economic calendar for the next seven days is empty (N/A), so no scheduled data releases, central bank meetings, or OPEC+ events can be confirmed from the data set. Market participants should monitor for any OPEC+ communications given WTI's position at $60.94/bbl, though no such event is listed in the provided calendar.
On the inventory front, the next EIA weekly report would follow the week ending 2025-05-23 data, which showed crude at 440,363 thousand barrels (-2,795 w/w), gasoline at 223,081 thousand barrels (-2,441 w/w), distillate at 103,408 thousand barrels (-724 w/w), and refinery utilization at 90.20%. The trajectory of these draws will be a key input for the energy complex.
The next CFTC Commitments of Traders report, following the 2025-05-27 snapshot, will be important for assessing whether the natural gas net short (-63,286) and the crude oil net length reduction (-7,932 w/w) continued. Given the 9.93% natural gas rally on 2025-05-29, the subsequent COT report may show short-covering, but this cannot be confirmed until the data is released.
Macro watchers will focus on the real-rate and dollar complex. The 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.11% and the DXY at 99.2800 are the two variables most likely to drive cross-asset commodity performance in the absence of scheduled catalysts.
10. Trading Desk Summary
- Natural gas (NG=F): Settled $3.5220, +9.93%. Pivot $3.5117, R1 $3.5864, S1 $3.4474. CFTC net short -63,286 (2025-05-27). Expect elevated volatility; the crowded short base is a two-way risk.
- Crude oil (CL=F): Settled $60.94, -1.46%. Pivot $61.5200, R1 $62.4900, S1 $59.9700. EIA draws failed to lift price. Watch S1 at $59.97.
- Gold (GC=F): Settled $3,317.1001, +0.71%. Pivot $3,296.1000, R1 $3,349.8001, S1 $3,263.4000. Range-bound on 5-/20-day changes (+0.24%/+0.37%). CFTC net long 110,816 (+3,187 w/w).
- Silver (SI=F): Settled $33.2830, +0.86%. Pivot $33.1277, R1 $33.5954, S1 $32.8154. Channel position 84.60%, strongest among metals.
- Copper (HG=F): Settled $4.6535, +0.20%. Pivot $4.6538 — trading at the pivot. Tight R1/S1 band ($4.6631/$4.6441) versus ATR $0.1010.
- Soybeans (ZS=F): Settled $1,051.75, +0.31%. Pivot $1,049.1667, R1 $1,058.3334, S1 $1,042.5834.
- Macro: Fed funds 4.33%, 10Y TIPS real yield 2.11%, 10s2s +0.51%, DXY 99.2800, VIX 19.18, HY spread 3.22%.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.