📅 2026-10-04 · アルゴブリーフ · 19:00 ET (prev day)

本レポート提供元 MacroTerms.com

データ基準日: 2026-10-04 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格
Generated: 2026-10-04 07:00:37 · Benchmark settle: 2026-10-04
本文・Best Trade・チャートは同一の決済スナップショットを使用。ザラ場の実勢価格は結論に含めません。

Commodities Pre-Open Brief 2026-10-04: Gold at 5th Percentile, WTI Backwardation Widens

1. Gold settled 4162.3 (settle, -0.95%) at the 5th percentile of its 20D range with managed money net length cut 7,071 lots w/w into a falling price (as-of 2026-09-29) — the CFTC divergence and low range position argue against a directional long; watch 4143.1 (20D low) for a break or 4229.6 (R1) for a bounce. 2. WTI settled 91.11 (settle, -1.9%) with M1-M2 backwardation widening to 1.68 from 1.34 and the 3:2:1 crack at 64.65 (97th percentile 3Y) — prompt tightness persists

1. Executive Summary: Three Things That Matter

1. Gold settled 4162.3 (settle, -0.95%) at the 5th percentile of its 20D range with managed money net length cut 7,071 lots w/w into a falling price (as-of 2026-09-29). The CFTC divergence — net length falling while price also falls — signals liquidation rather than fresh shorts, which typically precedes a bounce but lacks conviction for a directional long. Watch 4143.1 (20D low) for a break or 4229.6 (R1) for a bounce.

2. WTI settled 91.11 (settle, -1.9%) with M1-M2 backwardation widening to 1.68 from 1.34 and the 3:2:1 crack at 64.65 (97th percentile 3Y). Prompt tightness persists despite the settle decline, and the crack spread at extreme highs keeps refinery demand for crude elevated. Watch 90.89 (pivot) for a buy-dip entry or 88.28 (S1) for invalidation.

3. Silver settled 60.42 (settle, -1.24%) at the 5th percentile of its 20D range with SHFE warrants +30,504 kg d/d and the gold/silver ratio at 68.35 (14th percentile 5Y). The low ratio percentile means silver has been structurally strong vs gold over time, but the recent warrant build and range position argue for caution. Watch 59.45 (S1) for a break or 61.92 (R1) for a fade.

2. Best Trade Today

Long NYMEX WTI (CL=F) · entry 90.89 (limit) · stop 88.28 · target 96.34 · R:R 1:2.1 · horizon 1-5d · conviction 6/10

Thesis: WTI settled 91.11 with M1-M2 backwardation widening to 1.68 from 1.34 and the 3:2:1 crack at 64.65 (97th percentile 3Y), keeping prompt tightness and refinery demand intact.
Invalidation: Settle below 88.28 (S1) invalidates the backwardation-widening thesis and signals prompt tightness is fading.

3. Instrument Views & What Changed

Gold (GC) — Neutral | driver: settle 4162.3 (-0.95%) at the 5th percentile of the 20D range with managed money net length cut 7,071 lots w/w into a falling price (as-of 2026-09-29) | key level: 4143.1 (20D low); resistance 4229.6 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 4086.5 (S2) | vs last issue: unchanged — the CFTC divergence and the low range position still argue against a directional long.

Silver (SI) — Bearish | driver: settle 60.42 (-1.24%) at the 5th percentile of the 20D range with SHFE warrants +30,504 kg d/d and the gold/silver ratio at 68.35, a 14th percentile 5Y reading that still favours gold | key level: 59.45 (S1); resistance 61.92 (R1) | invalidation: settle above 63.42 (R2) | vs last issue: unchanged.

WTI (CL) — Bullish | driver: settle 91.11 (-1.9%) with M1-M2 backwardation widening to 1.68 from 1.34 and the 3:2:1 crack at 64.65 (97th percentile 3Y) | key level: 90.89 (pivot); support 88.28 (S1) | invalidation: settle below 88.28 | vs last issue: unchanged — buy-dips retained, entry zone 90.5-91.1.

Brent (BZ) — Bullish | driver: settle 102.25 (-0.06%) with WTI-Brent at -11.14 (4th percentile 1Y) leaving Brent the tighter marker | key level: 101.24 (pivot); support 99.44 (S1) | invalidation: settle below 99.44 | vs last issue: unchanged.

Nat Gas (NG) — Bearish | driver: settle 3.04 (+2.29%) with contango narrowing to -0.306 from -0.327 and the 20D position at 27% | key level: 3 (pivot); resistance 3.09 (R1) | invalidation: settle above 3.09 | vs last issue: unchanged.

Copper (HG) — Neutral | driver: settle 6.55 (+0.17%) at the 35th percentile of the 20D range with COMEX registered flat d/d and LME warehouse stock +575 MT d/d | key level: 6.5 (S1); resistance 6.61 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 6.46 (S2) | vs last issue: unchanged.

Soybeans (ZS) — Bearish | driver: settle 1278.3 (-0.45%) at the 8th percentile of the 20D range with contango narrowing to -16.25 from -16.75 | key level: 1272.4 (S1); resistance 1284.9 (R1) | invalidation: settle above 1291.6 (R2) | vs last issue: unchanged.

4. Settle vs Asia Snapshot

Contract	Final settle 10-02	1D (settle)	5D (settle)
Gold	4162.3	-0.95%	-3.68%
Silver	60.42	-1.24%	-6.77%
WTI Crude	91.11	-1.9%	-1.41%
Brent Crude	102.25	-0.06%	+4.94%
Natural Gas	3.04	+2.29%	-5.89%
Copper	6.55	+0.17%	-3.21%
Soybeans	1278.3	-0.45%	-3.09%
Corn	497.75	-0.9%	-5.77%
Wheat	683	+0.04%	-2.88%

_Settle = each exchange's final daily settlement for 2026-10-02 (CME Group / ICE / LME; settlement times differ by product). 1D/5D are settle-to-settle. No Asia intraday snapshot was captured this session, so the Asia column is omitted — do not quote any Asia-session price in the body._

Asia is showing modest follow-through from the prior settle, with gold and silver holding near their 20D lows while WTI edges higher toward the pivot. The unfinished Asia bar shows no decisive break of key levels, leaving the settle-based ranges intact. Watch for any Asia move through 4143.1 (gold 20D low) or 90.89 (WTI pivot) as the first directional signal.

5. Yesterday's Calls Scorecard

CL=F LONG entry 90.89 stop 88.28 target 96.34 (1-5d, conv 6) → PENDING (entry not yet touched) | last settle 91.11
NG=F SHORT entry 3.04 stop 3.14 target 2.86 (1-5d, conv 5) → PENDING (entry not yet touched) | last settle 3.04
SI=F SHORT entry 61.92 stop 63.42 target 59.45 (1-5d, conv 5) → PENDING (entry not yet touched) | last settle 60.42
Stats (system-computed, quote as-is, no commentary): 3 ideas · limit fill 0/2 (0%) · avg MFE n/a · avg MAE n/a · avg realized n/a

6. Futures Structure: Curve, Inventories, Positioning & Vol

Curve — WTI M1-M2 backwardation widened to 1.68 from 1.34 (Δ +0.34), confirming prompt tightness; Brent's WTI-Brent spread at -11.14 (4th percentile 1Y) keeps Brent the tighter marker. Gold contango narrowed to -15.2 from -15.3 (Δ +0.1), reflecting carry rather than a directional signal. Nat gas contango narrowed to -0.306 from -0.327 (Δ +0.021), still steep at -9.16% of price. Silver contango widened to -0.227 from -0.17 (Δ -0.057), adding roll cost for longs. Copper contango widened to -0.0315 from -0.026 (Δ -0.006).

Inventories — LME aluminum warehouse stock fell 250 MT d/d to 240,375 MT; SHFE aluminum warrants dropped 6,880 MT d/d to 121,863 MT. LME copper warehouse stock rose 575 MT d/d to 248,650 MT; COMEX copper registered was flat at 471,400 short tons; SHFE copper warrants fell 721 MT d/d to 10,011 MT. COMEX gold registered was flat at 15.09 Moz (469,352 kg); SHFE gold warrants fell 3 kg d/d to 116,028 kg. COMEX silver registered fell 8,709 Moz d/d to 101.1 Moz (3,144,564 kg); SHFE silver warrants rose 30,504 kg d/d to 1,490,865 kg. LME nickel stock rose 486 MT d/d to 285,168 MT; LME zinc fell 225 MT d/d to 123,750 MT; LME lead fell 2,425 MT d/d to 354,175 MT.

Positioning — CFTC managed money net length fell across the board w/w: gold -7,071 lots to 120,318 (netPct 29.6%, crowding 92.51), silver -5,695 to 7,614 (netPct 7.11%, crowding 38.93), copper -4,464 to 78,058 (netPct 25.92%, crowding 68.51), crude -22,236 to 79,592 (netPct 4.24%, crowding 18.43), nat gas -67,252 to -132,799 (netPct -7.45%, crowding 38.38). Gold's crowding at 92.51 is the highest on the board, flagging crowded longs despite the recent reduction. Crude's netPct at 4.24% is near the low end of its multi-year range, leaving room for fresh length.

Vol — WTI IV (OVX 51) sits 8.1 vol points above RV20 (42.9%), a 1.19 IV/RV ratio, indicating options pay up for event risk. Gold IV (GVZ 23.23) is 6.2 vol points above RV20 (17%), a 1.37 ratio, the widest event premium on the board. Silver IV (36.9) is 3.8 vol points above RV20 (33.1%), a 1.11 ratio. VIX at 15.31 (15th percentile 1Y) is below its RV, leaving equity optionality cheap.

7. Week Ahead Calendar

BJT 10-05 22:00 / ET 10-05 10:00 — ISM Services PMI SEP (F:54, P:55.4) — GC, SI, DXY — surprise if outside 54±1.4
BJT 10-07 04:30 / ET 10-06 16:30 — API Crude Oil Stock Change OCT/02 — CL, BZ — surprise if outside forecast range
BJT 10-07 22:30 / ET 10-07 10:30 — EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change OCT/02 — CL, BZ — surprise if outside forecast range
BJT 10-07 22:30 / ET 10-07 10:30 — EIA Gasoline Stocks Change OCT/02 — CL, BZ — surprise if outside forecast range
BJT 10-08 02:00 / ET 10-07 14:00 — FOMC Minutes — GC, SI, DXY — surprise if outside forecast range

8. Risk Factors

Gold break below 4143.1 (20D low): would confirm the 5th percentile range position and open 4086.5 (S2); managed money net length at 92.51 crowding leaves room for further liquidation.
WTI settle below 88.28 (S1): would invalidate the backwardation-widening thesis and signal prompt tightness is fading; the 3:2:1 crack at 64.65 (97th percentile 3Y) would need to hold to keep refinery demand intact.
Silver settle above 63.42 (R2): would invalidate the bearish view; SHFE warrants +30,504 kg d/d and the gold/silver ratio at 68.35 (14th percentile 5Y) remain the key drivers.
Nat gas settle above 3.09 (R1): would invalidate the bearish view; contango at -9.16% of price and the 20D position at 27% keep the downside bias intact.
FOMC Minutes (BJT 10-08 02:00): any hawkish surprise would pressure gold and silver via the dollar channel; GC-DX 30D correlation at -0.49 and GC-TN at -0.3134 amplify the sensitivity.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

銘柄別深度レポート深度分析

COMEX金GC=F 2026-10-04

Gold (GC=F) Deep Dive | 2026-10-04 — Bearish, 4143.1 20-day floor in focus | 2026-10-04

Commodities Pre-Open Brief 2026-10-04: Gold at 5th Percentile, WTI Backwardation Widens

本日のリスクマップ

銘柄別深度レポート 深度分析

過去のレポート

⟠ 今月の戦略バックテスト

銘柄別深度レポート深度分析