📅 2026-10-05 · アルゴブリーフ · 19:00 ET (prev day)

本レポート提供元 MacroTerms.com

データ基準日: 2026-10-05 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格
Generated: 2026-10-05 07:00:46 · Benchmark settle: 2026-10-05
本文・Best Trade・チャートは同一の決済スナップショットを使用。ザラ場の実勢価格は結論に含めません。

Commodities Pre-Open Brief 2026-10-05: Gold Holds 4143 Shelf, Brent Backwardation Bid, Soybeans Gap Lower

1) Gold settled 4162.3 (settle, -0.95%) at the 5th percentile of its 20D range and is bid to 4176.1 (Asia, +0.33%) — the 4143.1 20D low is the line that decides whether the 8.3% 20D drawdown extends; watch 4229.6 (R1) as the first place longs get paid. 2) Brent settled 102.25 (settle, -0.06%) with WTI-Brent at -11.14 (4th percentile 1Y) and OPEC+ holding November output steady — Brent remains the tighter marker, and 99.44 (S1) is the invalidation. 3) Soybeans settled 1278.3 (settle, -0.45%) and

Data revision (2026-10-06 19:01 EDT): after publication the closes below were updated to final exchange values. They affect trade ideas, the headline, spreads, or moved more than 0.5%; read the listed sections against the revised values.

- CC=F 10-02: 5609 → 5670 (+1.09%)

- KC=F 10-02: 290.75 → 288.75 (-0.69%)

- Plus 2 minor revision(s) (≤0.5%, conclusions unchanged); see the revision details on the page

1. Executive Summary: Three Things That Matter

1) Gold holds the 20D shelf. Gold settled 4162.3 (settle, -0.95%), the 5th percentile of its 20D 4143.1–4537.8 range, and is bid to 4176.1 (Asia, +0.33%). Managed money net length was cut 7,071 lots w/w into a 4.49% Tuesday-to-Tuesday price fall — a divergence that still argues against chasing longs. Watch 4143.1: a settle below it opens 4086.5 (S2); a reclaim of 4229.6 (R1) is the first evidence the drawdown is done.

2) Brent is the tight marker. Brent settled 102.25 (settle, -0.06%) and is 102.65 (Asia, +0.39%), with WTI-Brent at -11.14 (4th percentile 1Y) and OPEC+ holding November output steady while core members run ~5 million bpd below prewar levels. WTI settled 91.11 (settle, -1.9%) with M1-M2 backwardation unchanged at 1.68. Watch 99.44 (Brent S1) and 88.28 (WTI S1).

3) Soybeans gap through the 20D low. Soybeans settled 1278.3 (settle, -0.45%) and printed 1251.7 (Asia, -2.08%), below the 1273.3 20D low, on a thin early-October tape. Corn settled 497.75 (settle, -0.9%) at the 6th percentile of its 20D range. Watch 1266.6 (ZS S2) and 494.42 (ZC S1); a settle back above 1279.1 voids the soybean downside.

2. Best Trade Today

Short CBOT大豆 (ZS=F) · entry 1279.1 (limit) · stop 1300.5 · target 1236 · R:R 1:2 · horizon 1-5d · conviction 6/10

Thesis: Soybeans settled 1278.3 at the 8th percentile of the 20D range and the Asia bar at 1251.7 (-2.08% vs settle) has already broken the 1273.3 20D low, so selling the retest of the 1279.1 pivot keeps risk defined.
Invalidation: A holiday-thin gap can retrace violently; a settle back above 1291.6 (R2) kills the setup.

3. Instrument Views & What Changed

Gold (GC) — Neutral | driver: settle 4162.3 (-0.95%) at the 5th percentile of the 20D range, managed money net length -7,071 lots w/w into a 4.49% price fall, GVZ 23.23 vs RV20 17% | key level: 4143.1 (20D low); resistance 4229.6 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 4086.5 (S2) | vs last issue: unchanged — the CFTC divergence and the low range position still argue against a directional long.

Silver (SI) — Bearish | driver: settle 60.42 (-1.24%) at the 5th percentile of the 20D range, SHFE warrants +30,504 kg d/d, gold/silver ratio 68.35 at a 14th percentile 5Y reading that still favours gold | key level: 59.45 (S1); resistance 61.92 (R1) | invalidation: settle above 63.42 (R2) | vs last issue: unchanged.

WTI (CL) — Bullish | driver: settle 91.11 (-1.9%) with M1-M2 backwardation unchanged at 1.68 and the 3:2:1 crack at 64.65 (98th percentile 3Y) | key level: 90.89 (pivot); support 88.28 (S1) | invalidation: settle below 88.28 | vs last issue: unchanged — buy-dips retained, entry zone 90.5-91.1.

Brent (BZ) — Bullish | driver: settle 102.25 (-0.06%) with WTI-Brent at -11.14 (4th percentile 1Y) and OPEC+ holding November output steady | key level: 101.24 (pivot); support 99.44 (S1) | invalidation: settle below 99.44 | vs last issue: unchanged.

Nat Gas (NG) — Bearish | driver: settle 3.04 (+2.29%) with M1-M2 contango unchanged at -0.306 and the 20D position at 27%, managed money net -132,799 lots (-67,252 w/w) | key level: 3 (pivot); resistance 3.09 (R1) | invalidation: settle above 3.09 | vs last issue: unchanged.

Copper (HG) — Neutral | driver: settle 6.55 (+0.17%) at the 35th percentile of the 20D range, LME stocks +575 MT d/d, COMEX registered flat at 471,400 short tons, MM net 78,058 (-4,464 w/w) | key level: 6.5 (S1); resistance 6.61 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 6.46 (S2) | vs last issue: unchanged.

Soybeans (ZS) — Bearish | driver: settle 1278.3 (-0.45%) at the 8th percentile of the 20D range, Asia 1251.7 (-2.08%) below the 1273.3 20D low, crush margin 2.411 (50th percentile 1Y) | key level: 1279.1 (pivot); support 1266.6 (S2) | invalidation: settle above 1291.6 (R2) | vs last issue: new.

4. Settle vs Asia Snapshot

Contract	Final settle 10-02	1D (settle)	5D (settle)	Asia 10-05 07:00 BJT	vs settle
Gold	4162.3	-0.95%	-3.68%	4176.1	+0.33%
Silver	60.42	-1.24%	-6.77%	61.1	+1.13%
WTI Crude	91.11	-1.90%	-1.41%	91	-0.12%
Brent Crude	102.25	-0.06%	+4.94%	102.65	+0.39%
Natural Gas	3.04	+2.29%	-5.89%	3	-1.12%
Copper	6.55	+0.17%	-3.21%	6.58	+0.54%
Soybeans	1278.3	-0.45%	-3.09%	1251.7	-2.08%
Corn	497.75	-0.90%	-5.77%	n/a	n/a
Wheat	683	+0.04%	-2.88%	n/a	n/a

_Settle = each exchange's final daily settlement for 2026-10-02 (CME Group / ICE / LME; settlement times differ by product). 1D/5D are settle-to-settle. Asia = last trade before 08:00 Beijing time, not a settlement; “n/a” = that contract had no Asia print. A dated settle in brackets means that contract has no newer final settlement._

Asia is buying the precious complex against a soft settle: gold 4176.1 (Asia, +0.33%), silver 61.1 (Asia, +1.13%), platinum 1715.9 (Asia, +0.94%) and palladium 1177.3 (Asia, +0.44%) are all above their prior settles, with gold's Asia high 4176.6 still below 4229.6 (R1). Energy is mixed — Brent 102.65 (Asia, +0.39%) and heating oil 4.54 (Asia, +0.78%) firm, WTI 91 (Asia, -0.12%) and nat gas 3 (Asia, -1.12%) softer. The outlier is soybeans at 1251.7 (Asia, -2.08%), the only contract in the snapshot trading below its 20D low, while copper 6.58 (Asia, +0.54%) and the equity complex hold small gains.

5. Yesterday's Calls Scorecard

- CL=F LONG entry 90.89 stop 88.28 target 96.34 (1-5d, conv 6) → PENDING (entry not yet touched)	last settle 91.11
- SI=F SHORT entry 61.92 stop 63.42 target 59.45 (1-5d, conv 5) → PENDING (entry not yet touched)	last settle 60.42
- NG=F SHORT entry 3.04 stop 3.14 target 2.86 (1-5d, conv 5) → PENDING (entry not yet touched)	last settle 3.04

Stats (system-computed, quoted as-is): 3 ideas · limit fill 0/3 (0%) · avg MFE n/a · avg MAE n/a · avg realized n/a

6. Futures Structure: Curve, Inventories, Positioning & Vol

Curve. Day-on-day M1-M2 spreads are unchanged across the board: WTI backwardation 1.68 (1.88%), Brent-linked heating oil backwardation 0.1438 (3.3%), RBOB backwardation 0.2005 (6.44%), nat gas contango -0.306 (-9.16%), gold contango -15.2 (-0.37%), silver contango -0.227 (-0.38%), copper contango -0.0315 (-0.48%). No flips. The crude complex remains the only prompt-tight structure, and the RBOB-HO spread at -1.189 (5th percentile 3Y) says the distillate leg, not gasoline, carries the scarcity.

Inventories. LME copper +575 MT d/d to 248,650 MT, LME aluminium -250 MT to 240,375 MT, LME zinc -225 MT to 123,750 MT, LME lead -2,425 MT to 354,175 MT, LME nickel +486 MT to 285,168 MT, LME tin flat at 4,475 MT. COMEX copper registered flat at 471,400 short tons. COMEX silver registered -8,709 Moz d/d to 101.1 Moz (3,144,564 kg), while SHFE silver warrants rose +30,504 kg d/d to 1,490,865 kg. SHFE aluminium warrants -6,880 MT d/d to 121,863 MT. COMEX gold registered flat at 15.09 Moz (469,352 kg).

Positioning. Managed money cut crude net to 79,592 (-22,236 w/w) with netPct 4.24% (18th crowding percentile) into a 1.26% price fall — a light, non-crowded long base. Gold net 120,318 (-7,071 w/w), netPct 29.6% but a 92.51 crowding percentile: the largest divergence in the book, longs still crowded while price fell 4.49%. Nat gas net -132,799 (-67,252 w/w), netPct -7.45% at the 10th percentile 5Y — shorts are the crowded side. Copper net 78,058 (-4,464 w/w), netPct 25.92% at a 93rd percentile 5Y. Silver net 7,614 (-5,695 w/w), netPct 7.11% at the 27th percentile 5Y.

Vol. WTI IV 51 vs RV20 42.9% (IV-RV +8.1 pts, IV/RV 1.19) — a modest event premium. Gold GVZ 23.23 vs RV20 17% (IV-RV +6.2 pts, IV/RV 1.37) with GVZ at the 15th percentile 1Y: options are paying up relative to realized but the absolute level is historically low. Silver IV 36.9 vs RV20 33.1% (IV-RV +3.8 pts, IV/RV 1.11) — the cheapest relative optionality in the metals. VIX 15.31 at the 15th percentile 1Y keeps the macro vol backdrop suppressed.

7. Week Ahead Calendar

BJT 10-05 22:00 / ET 10-05 10:00 — ISM Services PMI (SEP) F:54.0 P:55.4 — GC, SI, DXY — surprise if outside F±1.4
BJT 10-05 22:00 / ET 10-05 10:00 — ISM Services PMI F:55.1 P:55.4 — GC, SI, DXY — surprise if outside F±0.3
BJT 10-07 04:30 / ET 10-06 16:30 — API Crude Oil Stock Change (OCT/02) — CL, BZ — no forecast published
BJT 10-07 22:30 / ET 10-07 10:30 — EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (OCT/02) — CL, BZ — no forecast published
BJT 10-07 22:30 / ET 10-07 10:30 — EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (OCT/02) — CL, BZ — no forecast published
BJT 10-08 02:00 / ET 10-07 14:00 — FOMC Meeting Minutes — GC, SI, DXY — no forecast published

8. Risk Factors

Gold breaks 4143.1 (20D low) on a settle. That would put 4086.5 (S2) in play and invalidate the neutral stance; the crowded 92.51 percentile long base is the accelerant.
Soybean short squeeze through 1291.6 (R2). A settle back above the pivot 1279.1 after the Asia gap to 1251.7 would void the bearish setup and force the trade flat.
WTI settles below 88.28 (S1). That breaks the buy-dips thesis and, with M1-M2 backwardation at 1.68, would signal prompt tightness is unwinding rather than consolidating.
Nat gas settles above 3.09 (R1). With managed money net -132,799 lots at the 10th percentile 5Y, a break of R1 risks a short-covering move toward 3.14 (R2).
FOMC minutes (BJT 10-08 02:00). A hawkish read lifts DXY (settle 101.93, 92nd percentile of its 20D range) and pressures gold, silver and copper simultaneously.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

銘柄別深度レポート深度分析

COMEX金GC=F 2026-10-05

Gold (GC=F) Deep Dive | 2026-10-05 — Selloff Exhausted at 20D Floor, Tactical Long | 2026-10-05

Commodities Pre-Open Brief 2026-10-05: Gold Holds 4143 Shelf, Brent Backwardation Bid, Soybeans Gap Lower

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