📅 2026-10-07 · アルゴブリーフ · 19:00 ET (prev day)

本レポート提供元 MacroTerms.com

データ基準日: 2026-10-07 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格
Generated: 2026-10-07 10:45:20 · Benchmark settle: 2026-10-07
本文・Best Trade・チャートは同一の決済スナップショットを使用。ザラ場の実勢価格は結論に含めません。

Commodities Pre-Open Brief 2026-10-07: Brent Holds Above $100 Settle as Asia Adds Risk Premium

1) Brent settled 100.58 (+0.26%) with WTI-Brent at -11.14 (5th percentile 1Y) and Asia trading 101.55 (+0.96%) on unconfirmed Houthi strikes on Saudi sites.
2) Gold settled 4187.1 (+0.73%) at the 16th percentile of its 20D range, Asia 4160 (-0.65%) ahead of FOMC minutes.
3) Silver settled 61.59 (+0.47%) with COMEX registered +0.58 Moz to 101.68 Moz as of 10-02; Asia 60.99 (-0.97%).

1. Executive Summary: Three Things That Matter

1. Brent settled 100.58 (+0.26%) and Asia is trading 101.55 (+0.96% vs settle) on unconfirmed Houthi claims of strikes on three Saudi sites including Riyadh airport. Why it matters for futures: the WTI-Brent spread at -11.14 (5th percentile 1Y) means the geopolitical premium sits in the Brent leg, so any de-escalation hits BZ harder than CL. Watch 100.58 (settle) as the line that separates a premium that holds from one that bleeds; a settle back below 98.01 (S1) would mark the risk bid as faded.

2. Gold settled 4187.1 (+0.73%) but Asia is 4160 (-0.65% vs settle), with the metal still at the 16th percentile of its 20D range (4130.7-4479.9). Why it matters: managed money net length fell 7,071 lots w/w into a 4.49% price decline — a same-direction move, not a divergence — so positioning is not the obstacle to a bounce. Watch 4141.1 (S1); a settle below it reopens 4095 (S2).

3. Silver settled 61.59 (+0.47%) with Asia at 60.99 (-0.97% vs settle), and COMEX registered stocks rose 0.58 Moz to 101.68 Moz as of 2026-10-02. Why it matters: the gold/silver ratio at 67.98 (61st percentile 1Y, 13th percentile 5Y) still shows silver lagging gold over the long window, so rallies remain the lower-conviction leg. Watch 60.7 (S1) on a settle basis.

2. Best Trade Today

No trade met the publication standard today (stop distance and reward-to-risk checks). Standing aside.

3. Instrument Views & What Changed

Gold (GC) — Neutral | driver: settle 4187.1 (+0.73%) at the 16th percentile of the 20D range, managed money net 120,318 lots (-7,071 w/w) into a 4.49% price fall (aligned, not a divergence), GVZ 22.97 vs RV20 17% | key level: 4141.1 (S1); resistance 4222.8 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 4095 (S2) | vs last issue: unchanged — the low range position and the same-direction positioning cut still argue against a directional long.

Silver (SI) — Bearish | driver: settle 61.59 (+0.47%) at the 18th percentile of the 20D range, COMEX registered +0.58 Moz to 101.68 Moz as of 2026-10-02, gold/silver ratio 67.98 (13th percentile 5Y) still showing silver lagging gold | key level: 60.7 (S1); resistance 62.34 (R1) | invalidation: settle above 63.1 (R2) | vs last issue: unchanged.

WTI (CL) — Bullish | driver: settle 89.44 (+0.01%) with M1-M2 backwardation narrowing to 1 from 1.42 and the 3:2:1 crack at 66.18 (94th percentile 1Y) | key level: 88.78 (pivot); support 87.52 (S1) | invalidation: settle below 87.52 | vs last issue: unchanged — the crack at 66.18 keeps the buy-dip structure intact even as the backwardation narrowed.

Brent (BZ) — Bullish | driver: settle 100.58 (+0.26%) with WTI-Brent at -11.14 (5th percentile 1Y) and Asia 101.55 (+0.96% vs settle) on unconfirmed Houthi strike claims | key level: 99.65 (pivot); support 98.01 (S1) | invalidation: settle below 95.43 (S2) | vs last issue: unchanged.

Nat Gas (NG) — Bearish | driver: settle 3.11 (+1.57%) with M1-M2 contango narrowing to -0.266 from -0.293 and managed money net -132,799 lots (-67,252 w/w) at the 6th percentile 1Y | key level: 3.07 (S1); resistance 3.14 (R1) | invalidation: settle above 3.17 (R2) | vs last issue: unchanged.

Copper (HG) — Neutral | driver: settle 6.65 (+0.13%) at the 52nd percentile of the 20D range, LME warehouse stock -3,750 MT to 244,900 MT as of 2026-10-05, managed money net 78,058 lots (-4,464 w/w) into a 3.4% price fall (aligned) | key level: 6.61 (S1); resistance 6.69 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 6.58 (S2) | vs last issue: new.

Soybeans (ZS) — Bullish | driver: settle 1303 (+1.74%) with M1-M2 contango widening to -16.75 from -16.5 and the crush at 2.457 USD/bu (53rd percentile 1Y) | key level: 1295.4 (pivot); support 1285.8 (S1) | invalidation: settle below 1285.8 | vs last issue: new.

4. Settle vs Asia Snapshot

Contract	Final settle 10-06	1D (settle)	5D (settle)	Asia 10-07 BJT	vs settle
Gold	4187.1	+0.73%	+0.18%	4160	-0.65%
Silver	61.59	+0.47%	+0.71%	60.99	-0.97%
WTI Crude	89.44	+0.01%	+0.07%	90.16	+0.81%
Brent Crude	100.58	+0.26%	+4.6%	101.55	+0.96%
Natural Gas	3.11	+1.57%	+3.42%	3.14	+0.71%
Copper	6.65	+0.13%	+0.7%	6.63	-0.34%
Soybeans	1303	+1.74%	+0.4%	1307.3	+0.33%
Corn	508	+2.16%	-2.68%	508	+0%
Wheat	704.25	+1.73%	+1.66%	703.25	-0.14%

_Settle = each exchange's final daily settlement for 2026-10-06 (CME Group / ICE / LME; settlement times differ by product). 1D/5D are settle-to-settle. Asia = report-date intraday observation from the supplied snapshot, not a settlement or a guaranteed 08:00 cutoff; “n/a” = that contract had no Asia print. A dated settle in brackets means that contract has no newer final settlement._

Cross-market spreads & ratios

Spread / ratio	Formula	Now (settle mm-dd)	Prior close	Day change	1Y pct	Reading
WTI–Brent spread	`CL − BZ`	-11.14 (10-06)	-10.89	-0.25	5%	negative = Brent premium over WTI
Gold/Silver ratio	`GC ÷ SI`	67.98 (10-06)	67.81	+0.17	61%	high/rising = silver lagging gold
Copper/Gold ratio	`HG ÷ GC × 1000`	1.59 (10-06)	1.6	-0.01	98%	high/rising = pro-growth / risk-on
Gold/oil ratio (bbl/oz)	`GC ÷ CL`	46.8 (10-06)	46.5	+0.3	16%	barrels of WTI one troy ounce of gold buys
3:2:1 crack spread	`(2×RB + HO) × 42 ÷ 3 − CL`	66.18 (10-06)	65.1	+1.08	94%	refiner margin per bbl of crude

_Computed from the same final settles as the table above; every leg of a row shares one settlement date (shown in brackets), otherwise the row is omitted. Prior close = previous common settlement date. 1Y pct = percentile of Now within roughly 400 calendar days of settles._

Asia is bid in the energy complex: Brent 101.55 (+0.96% vs settle) and WTI 90.16 (+0.81% vs settle) are both above their prior settles, with heating oil 4.65 (+1.83% vs settle) leading. Precious metals are the mirror image — gold 4160 (-0.65% vs settle), silver 60.99 (-0.97% vs settle) and palladium 1159.5 (-1.27% vs settle) are all softer, with the dollar index at 102.1 (+0.26% vs settle). Grains are mixed and quiet: soybeans 1307.3 (+0.33% vs settle), corn 508 (0% vs settle), wheat 703.25 (-0.14% vs settle).

5. Yesterday's Calls Scorecard

SI=F SHORT entry 61.92 stop 63.42 target 59.45 (1-5d, conv 5) → OPEN (filled, running) | last settle 61.59 (unrealized +0.53%) | thesis: Silver settled 61.3 at the 15th percentile of the 20D range with SHFE warrants +30,504 kg
Stats (system-computed): 1 ideas · limit fill 1/1 (100%) · avg MFE +0.59R (n=1) · avg MAE 0.19R (n=1) · avg realized n/a

6. Futures Structure: Curve, Inventories, Positioning & Vol

Curve — WTI M1-M2 backwardation narrowed to 1 from 1.42 (Δ -0.42), still positive but the prompt tightness is fading. Brent's own calendar curve is not shown in this dataset, so the -11.14 WTI-Brent premium alone does not establish that Brent's curve is tighter than WTI's. Gold contango widened to -17.3 from -14.4 (Δ -2.9), a carry cost for longs, not a cap. Copper contango narrowed to -0.026 from -0.0315 (Δ +0.006). Nat gas contango narrowed to -0.266 from -0.293 (Δ +0.027). Heating oil backwardation narrowed to 0.142 from 0.1515, and RBOB backwardation narrowed to 0.169 from 0.1979.

Inventories — LME copper warehouse stock fell 3,750 MT to 244,900 MT as of 2026-10-05 (5-report change -6,450 MT); COMEX copper registered was unchanged at 471,400 short tons as of 2026-10-02. LME zinc rose 3,225 MT to 126,975 MT as of 2026-10-05. LME aluminum was unchanged at 240,375 MT as of 2026-10-05. COMEX silver registered rose 0.58 Moz to 101.68 Moz (3,162,604 kg) as of 2026-10-02; COMEX gold registered was unchanged at 15.09 Moz (469,352 kg) as of 2026-10-02. SHFE silver warrants rose 30,504 kg to 1,490,865 kg as of 2026-09-30.

Positioning — CFTC as of 2026-09-29: crude oil managed money net 79,592 lots (-22,236 w/w) with price -1.26% over the same window — aligned, both fell. Gold net 120,318 (-7,071 w/w) with price -4.49% — aligned. Silver net 7,614 (-5,695 w/w) with price -8.08% — aligned. Copper net 78,058 (-4,464 w/w) with price -3.4% — aligned. Nat gas net -132,799 (-67,252 w/w) with price -3.4% — aligned. Gold's crowding reading of 92.51 is the only one near the top of its 3-year window; crude's 18.43 and silver's 38.93 are not crowded.

Vol — WTI OVX 48.79 vs RV20 42.9% gives IV-RV +5.9 vol points (IV/RV 1.14), a modest event premium. Gold GVZ 22.97 vs RV20 17% gives +6.0 vol points (IV/RV 1.35), the widest ratio in the complex and consistent with FOMC minutes risk. Silver VXSLV 37.19 vs RV20 33.8% gives +3.4 vol points (IV/RV 1.1). VIX at 15.01 sits in the 12th percentile of its 1Y range, so equity optionality is priced below its own recent history even as gold and oil carry a premium.

7. Week Ahead Calendar

BJT 10-07 22:30 / ET 10-07 10:30 — EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (OCT/02) — CL, BZ — Consensus unavailable; surprise cannot be quantified.
BJT 10-07 22:30 / ET 10-07 10:30 — EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (OCT/02) — CL, BZ — Consensus unavailable; surprise cannot be quantified.
BJT 10-08 02:00 / ET 10-07 14:00 — FOMC Meeting Minutes — GC, SI, DXY — qualitative policy scenario: a hawkish read lifts the dollar and pressures gold; a dovish read does the reverse. No numerical threshold applies.
BJT 10-08 16:30 / ET 10-08 04:30 — FOMC Member Waller Speaks — GC, SI, DXY — qualitative policy scenario: guidance on the tightening path; no numerical threshold applies.
BJT 10-14 09:30 / ET 10-13 21:30 — China CPI y/y — HG, CL, ZS — Consensus unavailable; surprise cannot be quantified.
BJT 10-14 09:30 / ET 10-13 21:30 — China PPI y/y — HG, CL, ZS — Consensus unavailable; surprise cannot be quantified.

8. Risk Factors

Brent headline reversal. The Houthi strike claims are unconfirmed; a denial or evidence of no damage would hit BZ first. Trigger: a settle back below 98.01 (S1).
FOMC minutes hawkish surprise. Gold is already at the 16th percentile of its 20D range with GVZ at a 14th percentile 1Y reading. Trigger: a settle below 4095 (S2) in GC.
Dollar breakout. DX-Y.NYB settled 101.83 and Asia is 102.1 (+0.26% vs settle), with the 20D range top at 102.54. Trigger: a settle above 102.54, which pressures gold, silver and copper simultaneously.
Silver squeeze risk against the short. SHFE warrants rose 30,504 kg to 1,490,865 kg as of 2026-09-30, but the gold/silver ratio at 67.98 is only the 61st percentile of 1Y. Trigger: a settle above 63.1 (R2) in SI.
Crack spread unwind. The 3:2:1 crack at 66.18 sits in the 94th percentile of 1Y and the 98th of 3Y; a mean-reverting move would drag WTI with it. Trigger: a settle below 87.52 (S1) in CL.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

銘柄別深度レポート深度分析

COMEX金GC=F 2026-10-07

Gold (GC=F) Deep Dive | 2026-10-07 — Fading Crowded Longs Into Support, Tactical LONG | 2026-10-07

Commodities Pre-Open Brief 2026-10-07: Brent Holds Above $100 Settle as Asia Adds Risk Premium

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